Inside Markets — Fundamental Framework

Our bullish fundamental framework from May that includes resilient macro data, better earnings growth and thawing trade tensions remains intact. Historically, Fed easing cycles in the absence of an economic recession have always generated positive 12-month forward equity performance with an average return of ~15%. No one should take recession avoidance for granted, but in addition to monetary easing, the US economy should also benefit from the massive tech capex cycle, accelerated depreciation and ongoing fiscal impulse which is ‘planned’ to accelerate through Q2’26.