Insights

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April 29, 2025

The Fed is widely expected to leave rates unchanged next week with markets more interested in a potential dovish change to forward guidance.

A combination of light positioning, low liquidity and extreme bearish equity sentiment has kept the pain trade skewed to the

The recent de-escalation in trade tensions has narrowed downside tail risk but won’t immediately change the probability of a recession,

The pain trade is clearly skewed to the upside with sidelined cash at all-time highs, equity sentiment at bearish extremes

Extreme bearish equity sentiment, light positioning and low liquidity keep the pain trade biased higher in the near-term.

Yesterday’s sell-off stayed contained within the April 9 bullish outside day with the SPX opening low ~4950 serving as our

Slowing growth data and resilient labor should be enough to keep the SPX on track to retest lows.

The reflex rally off last week’s low has carried the SPX into strong technical resistance in the 5396-5650 range.

The most recent bear market occurred in 2022 as the Fed ramped its hiking campaign.

There’s been a lot of press attention on whether the backup in Treasury yields is due to foreign investor selling.

Yesterday’s reflex rally took the SPX to key resistance in the 5450-5650 range that contains the downside gap post-April 2