Insights

The S&P 500 (SPX) has extended beyond the upper-end of technical resistance at 4100, despite a still challenging fundamental and

Catalysts ahead include mega-cap earnings this afternoon and tomorrow’s Jobs Report, all of which will likely have a material impact

Monetary factors are at the center of the current market narrative, with equity upside yesterday driven by a weaker-than-expected Employment

A 25bp rate hike tomorrow is already priced into the OIS forward market along with 25bp expected in March before

China reopening optimism and expectations for an imminent Fed pause have combined to form an emerging ‘soft-landing’ scenario often cited

At 4025, the S&P 500 (SPX) is currently trading above its 50, 100, 200 day moving averages and above the

The S&P 500 (SPX) was unable to hold key momentum levels earlier in the week after weaker-than-expected data challenged the

We may be entering a new phase as the disinflation narrative is now consensus and a still-hawkish Fed drives concerns

Bonds and stocks have been positively correlated over the last 12 months, and today’s bifurcation may reflect growing concerns for

The S&P 500 outlook is in focus as the index has gained over 4% to start the year and is

Quiet overnight headlines ahead of tomorrow’s CPI report and Friday’s start of calendar Q4 earnings season. Trends this morning are

CPI scenarios are in focus as we await the macro event of the week. Options markets are currently priced for

Friday’s inline payroll gain and softer than expected wage number fit the rarely seen soft landing scenario.

December non-farm payrolls came in slightly above expectations and the Unemployment Rate declined, but softer wage gains have dovish implications

Terminal rate expectations may come down as job market softens. Anecdotal evidence of a softer jobs market continues to build,

Today’s encouraging inflation data interrupts two weeks of catalyst-free trend continuation that resulted in the S&P 500 (SPX) reaching short-term

The new year outlook is fairly optimistic considering 2022 was a challenging year for investment returns as rising bond yields

Q1’23 contains the next macro catalysts for the market on Wednesday January 4 when we get manufacturing ISM, US JOLTs

Today’s rebound from short-term oversold levels is a welcome development, but a lack of meaningful catalysts should keep a lid

The rally in 30-year Treasuries decelerated earlier this month as it approached 3.50% with momentum divergence, signaling a tactical mean

Equity market direction is often dominated by a single cross market, but those relationships tend to be fleeting. Terminal rates

SPX support levels are in focus as the S&P 500 (SPX) faded from predetermined resistance near 4100 this week.  Intraday

SPX support levels are in focus as the S&P 500 (SPX) faded from predetermined resistance near 4100 this week.  Intraday

Today’s updated median dot for ’23 will have implications for terminal rate expectations and equity markets.  Terminal rate expectations have

A cooler than expected October CPI report in mid-November caused the unwinding of a crowded macro trade that was short

The S&P 500 (SPX) is priced for dovish data next week, after managing to close above its 200-day moving average

We expect the S&P 500 to lose steam as it approaches resistance ahead in the 4100-4200 zone. This has been

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has returned to ‘normal’ levels near 20, which temporarily removes an equity headwind that’s been

Powell’s overall tone is more dovish than expected. Consensus was looking for his comments to be at least as hawkish

Given the sharp recent uptick in interest rates, it’s reasonable to expect some form of US recession next year.  Over

Given the sharp recent uptick in interest rates, it’s reasonable to expect some form of US recession next year.  Over

The mid-October conditions that had us looking for a Q4 rally included technical signals (deep oversold conditions with momentum divergences)

The S&P 500 (SPX) is now consolidating gains from the post-CPI rally that took the index through technical resistance at

Deep oversold internal signals and momentum divergence (daily and weekly) from mid-October had Q4 expectations focused on a potential rally.

If you exclude shelter from last week’s core CPI print, you get a negative MoM core number, which implies deflation.

The S&P 500 has the potential to move higher than we initially expected given the post-CPI adjustment in terminal rate

The bearish narrative includes 1) increased inflation expectations; 2) higher energy costs; 3) higher bond yields; 4) higher terminal rates;

Implied rate cuts are something to watch alongside changes to Fed terminal rate expectations. 

Yesterday’s +5.6% gain in the SPX followed a 27bp decline in terminal rate expectations and sharp increase in expected Fed

SPX rally follows a cooler than expected CPI print.  Consumer Discretionary, REITS and Tech are outperforming, while defensive groups like

Markets understand the major lags in many CPI components, so a hotter-than-expected print tomorrow may have less impact on equities

Realized inflation data matters most for markets and near-term Fed policy with Thursday’s release of October CPI in view.

CPI/SPX Outlook is generally favorable following aggressive Fed comments last week. The post-FOMC speakers tour picks up this week with

Near-term SPX is heavily dependent on terminal Fed Rate expectations, which rose into and out of Wednesday’s Fed meeting.

Catalysts ahead, including tomorrow’s Jobs Report, will likely impact terminal rate expectations, bond yields and equity markets.

It is fairly quiet ahead of today’s Fed Meeting (11am PT) and press conference (11:30am). The most likely outcome is

Catalysts ahead include Tomorrow’s Fed meeting, Friday’s Jobs Report and next Thursday’s CPI print.

Fed scenarios going into Wednesday’s Fed meeting lean equity friendly. Rate hike expectations range from 50bp to 100bp with 75bp

Cross markets provide support for equities, which are higher and near best levels with the S&P 500 on track for

Crude prices in focus as US equities are narrowly mixed, with Energy, Industrials and Financials upside standouts.

US equities are mostly lower with Health Care, Energy and Materials outperforming, while Communication Services (GOOGL) and Tech (MSFT) retreat.

Terminal Fed rate expectations (implied in the OIS forward curve) have been the dominant driver for equities since April/May.

According to the latest Zillow update, home sales in September fell -18% MoM with a sharp deceleration in activity at

The S&P 500 (SPX) has rallied ~4% off the lows through yesterday’s close, but the buyers are likely higher. There

The near-term technical resistance hurdle for the S&P 500 remains 3690 with the index currently above that level intraday.

We discuss SPX outlook as equities rebound following improved UK sentiment.

The sharp reversal in equity markets follows details that reveal the elevated CPI print came largely from stickier components like

Consensus is looking for headline CPI to come in at +8.1%.  Anything north of +8.1% will likely weigh on the

Terminal rate expectations remain the key to market sentiment as markets react to the latest NY Fed Survey of Consumer

Higher Eurozone yields combined with a closed US Treasury market weigh on equity sentiment ahead of resumed trading tomorrow and

Today’s Jobs Report came in mostly inline, reaffirming outlook. Non-farm payrolls were up +263,000 in September vs. consensus for +250,000.

Catalysts ahead include tomorrow’s Jobs Report and next Thursday’s CPI print. Markets are in a ‘bad news is good’ phase

Recovery signal appears in markets, despite a mixed session for U.S. equities after the S&P 500 gained +5.8% over the

Several catalysts ahead, though quiet in terms of earnings until CQ3 earnings season kicks off next Friday. 

Terminal rate expectations are down -12.1bp this morning to 4.41% and are still the dominant cross market for equities.  Terminal

Near term outlook driven by a calmer tone following reports that UK PM Truss and Chancellor Kwarteng are holding an

Higher global bond yields put renewed pressure on equities after the new UK PM and Chancellor unveiled energy price caps/stimulus

Terminal rate expectations are in focus as lower bond yields follow the BOE’s announced bond purchase program that erases about

The S&P 500 (SPX) is in deeply oversold territory and susceptible to another reflex rally in the 10-15% range. Internal

The S&P 500 (SPX) has lost ~5.3% since the September Fed policy statement and press conference where Powell mentioned ‘pain’

The S&P 500 (SPX) has returned to deeply oversold levels and now testing June lows at ~3660 with long-term valuation

Equities closed lower after a more hawkish dot plot (median ’23 dot of 4.625% pushed terminal rate expectations higher) and

Consensus is looking for a 75bp hike and hawkish press conference where Powell stays focused on remaining inflation risks.  In

Over the past week, we’ve received negative Q3 earnings preannouncements from DOW, EMN, HUN, OLN, F, GE, FDX, ARNC, NUE,

The S&P 500 is currently trading below technical support at 3890, which should open the door for a full retest

The first two weeks of September always include a number of sell-side industry conferences where companies provide updates/trends post-CQ2 earnings

Tuesday’s hotter than expected core CPI report has markets full priced for a 75bp hike with odds of a 100bp

After yesterday’s CPI print, bond markets are now priced for a 75bp hike at next week’s meeting with expectations for

The hotter CPI print lifts terminal Fed rate expectations to 4.15% and pressures the S&P 500 back below the 4020-4040

In mid-August, the S&P’s failure to get through its 200-day moving average at ~4330 resulted in the reemergence of broad-based

The oversold equity rally continues with the S&P 500 (SPX) currently trading above pattern resistance in the ~4020-4040 range.  A

Short-term oversold conditions and an emerging peak-central bank theme have managed to hold the S&P 500 above technical support at

The S&P 500 (SPX) held technical support at ~3900 yesterday and sits at the lower end of a ~3900-4300 range.

This week includes a number of industry conferences where management teams will provide updates: 1) Bank of America gaming &

The Fed has been clear it wants to see a slowdown in labor markets before it changes its tightening path.

The Fed has been clear that it wants to see some cooling in labor markets. Consensus for tomorrow’s release of

The pace of rate hikes hasn’t really changed with markets still pricing in nearly the same probability for a 75bp

The path of least resistance has been lower since the S&P 500 failed to break through the 200-day moving average

Powell’s central message on Friday was that interest rates may need to stay at elevated levels longer than current market

Today’s downtick in equity markets is being attributed to a more hawkish than expected speech from Powell at Jackson Hole.

Caution ahead of Powell’s address tomorrow was cited for Monday’s weakness in equity markets. Given the recent pullback in inflation

Monday’s sell-off was attributed to fears that Powell will delivering a hawkish speech this Friday. But there doesn’t seem to

A few months ago, we suggested the Saudis response to an Iran nuclear deal (they don’t get along) would likely

OIS forwards are pricing in an even probability (50/50) for a 50bp or 75bp hike at the 9/21 Fed meeting.

Increased short covering gets most of the credit for the ~18% S&P 500 (SPX) rally off the mid-June low as

The fundamental backdrop for equities remains bearish with a 3.50% terminal funds rate and deeply inverted 2/10 yield curve. Bearish

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has now decelerated to neutral levels near 20. Elevated realized volatility usually serves as a

The S&P 500 (SPX) managed to push through key technical resistance near 4180 after the NY Fed’s prices paid/received component

The S&P 500 (SPX) is higher after this morning’s cooler CPI print into technical resistance at ~4200.  Old support levels

Tomorrow’s July CPI report is the most important inflation catalyst this week, but it’s not the only one.  July PPI

Technical resistance for the S&P 500 (SPX) remains in the 4150-4200 range. The SPX has now rallied +13% off the

It’s hard to reconcile today’s strong jobs report with the recent rise in jobless claims and long list of anecdotal

With inflation and Fed policy in focus, equity markets would prefer that tomorrow’s Jobs Report come in weaker rather than

The past two days of hawkish Fed rhetoric has pushed terminal Fed expectations from ~3.25% to ~3.45%.  We’ve been following

The prices paid component in yesterday’s ISM manufacturing survey for July declined by a record -18.5 points MoM to 60.0.

Most of the downside in yields is currently being driven by illiquid conditions during a seasonally slow period for Treasury

The 10-year Treasury yield is down -11bp to 2.674% and ready to test strong technical support at ~2.64%.  Expect that level

A 75bp rate hike today would take Fed funds close to the neutral rate of ~2.50%.  This puts increased attention

The peak inflation narrative really began back on May 9 when ten-year inflation breakeven rates traded below support at 280bps.

Ten-year bond yields fell ~24bp last week to 2.75%, reflecting increased recession worries.  Following lagging indicators like GDP for signs

The S&P 500 (SPX) cleared near-term technical resistance in the 3950-3970 range yesterday with a position squeeze potentially postponed as

Aggregate Q2 management commentary on the state of the US consumer suggests some weakening in lower income consumers, but mostly

The S&P 500 (SPX) is butting up against intervening resistance in the 3950-3970 range with a breakout likely to result

The S&P 500 needs to clear resistance at 4150-4200 to build a bullish technical outlook over the intermediate term.  Near-term

The S&P 500 remains in a narrow range between ~3720-3910. A push above 3950 would still be considered part of

Sell-side research analysts should be done with one-year forward estimate cuts by the end of Q2 earnings season (end of

The current higher than ‘neutral’ terminal Fed rate is a challenge for equity markets. The Fed follows longer term inflation

We expect sell-side analysts to complete 2023 earnings revisions by August/September, and by Q4 equities will be fully discounting economic

Better-than-feared early Q2 results amid defensive positioning and extreme bearish sentiment could result in a squeeze higher. We continue to

Ten year inflation breakeven yields have moved sharply lower since crossing below technical support at 280bp.

The biggest overhang for equities has been central bank policy and a shift in tightening expectations will remove the overhang.

US core PCE (Fed’s preferred inflation measure) came in cooler than expected, up +0.3% MoM vs. consensus for +0.5%.  This

The forward curve is pricing in a decline in headline inflation and we expect lower goods prices H2’22.  Energy prices

Ten-year Treasury yields and risk markets (copper/gold ratio, European equity indices, semiconductors and US Financials) tend to have a positive

The 4200 level is a significant technical challenge and pushing beyond the range will likely require a change in macro

Inflation expectations drive Fed rate expectations, and hawkish Fed expectations are weighing on the S&P 500 (SPX). Ten-year inflation breakeven

Bond markets are now priced for 75bp tomorrow, 75bp for July, 50bp for September, 50bp for November, 25bp for December

Decelerating inflation and slower growth should weigh on value stocks more than quality. Year-to-date, the S&P 500 Value Index is

The S&P 500 should remain above technical support at ~3,850 as long as 10-year inflation breakeven yields remain below 283bp.

Our primary focus for equity markets are 10-year inflation breakeven yields, which currently sit at 277bp.  

The trigger for an SPX reversal in March 2020 was narrowing credit spreads. We accurately identified the trigger in early

Inflation breakeven yields tend to lead equities and Fed expectations during periods of elevated inflation.

A new paper from the Fed contrasts the inflation from the ‘70s to the current situation, suggesting policymakers from the

The S&P 500 (SPX) has already absorbed the assumed tightening in monetary policy.  Inflation expectations will need to rise in

The relationship between inflation breakeven yields and terminal Fed rate expectations is the most important cross market indicator for equity

Markets are currently pricing in 50bp hikes in June and July and 50/50 probability for 50bps or 25bps in September.

We initiated positions in the Energy sector more than 9 months ago because it was inexpensive and we wanted to

The potential bullish equity theme also requires lower levels of equity market volatility. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has descended

At least part of the plan has come together.  The challenge facing markets from late February-early May was a breakdown

Historical collinearities began to reestablish themselves after 10-year inflation breakeven yields traded below technical support at 280bps (5/9). We discussed

The consumer came into this year with strong household balance sheets and elevated savings rates. Recessions generally require stretched credit

A sustained rally in equities requires lower inflation breakeven yields followed by lower nominal bond yields and lower Fed expectations.

The potential catalyst for a Fed pivot in today’s world would likely start in declining inflation expectations. This puts the

The S&P 500 (SPX) is testing last Thursday’s intraday reversal level in the 3,850-3,900 range with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement

The Fed’s increased clarity on near-term policy should help reduce bond market volatility, which usually leads to a narrowing of

Copper and steel prices typically lead the way on inflation and they’re already negative YoY.  We should begin to see

Coincidentally, we think that changed last Monday when 10-year breakeven yields moved sharply below support at ~280bps.

We were surprised to see the S&P 500 (SPX) break technical range support near 4,100 amid record bearish equity sentiment

Inflation expectations continue to decline with 10-year breakeven yields down to our predetermined support range of 262-265bps.

The S&P 500 will likely stay range bound until there’s a more obvious deceleration in inflation.  

Prior to 2/24, the relationship between commodity prices, Fed expectations and bond yields functioned normally and the S&P 500 (SPX)

Prices are very oversold, positioning is light and equity sentiment sits at bearish extremes. Valuations are now at reasonable levels

The US economy added +428,000 jobs in April, which was higher than consensus expectation for 380,000.  Non-farm payrolls are now

Today’s downtick in risk assets mostly reflects an uncertainty discount into tomorrow’s April Jobs Report and next Wednesday’s CPI print.

The market will be focused on: 1) Fed comments around more 50bp rate hikes at upcoming meetings; 2) whether Powell

The cause of all this pessimism is inflation, exacerbated by Russia’s invasion. Prior to the invasion, markets had been responding

The bearish narrative includes: 1) an aggressive Fed-led global tightening cycle; 2) persistently high inflation data exacerbated by spiking commodity

The near-term risk/reward for the SPX remains higher given extreme bearish equity sentiment, light positioning and oversold conditions.  

Technical support for the S&P 500 (SPX) remains in the ~4150 range after holding that level twice during the early-

We continue to view Energy as a secular opportunity that will play over several years.  

The US economy seems to be in unchartered waters, with certain elements (tight labor markets/unusual inflation pressures) associated with late

Opinions are mostly formed by past experience, with elevated inflation on sharply high oil prices causing some investors to dust

We keep our value sector bias when adding equity exposure with Energy outperformance in early innings. OPEC+ has been under-producing

Our call for a better-than-feared March CPI was based on extreme expectations and leading indicators pointing to an imminent near-term

Given already high expectations, we don’t expect tomorrow’s US CPI release to become a major inflection event for markets.  Consensus

Our preference to add exposure in value sectors began last July.  Since then, the S&P 500 Value Index (SVX) has

The challenge for any central bank is that inflation and employment adjust with a ~12 month lag.  A lot of

The past few weeks of NDX outperformance looked like lazy, low conviction buying as a 70’s-style stagflation narrative emerged while

Past early stages of Fed tightening have not been negative for equities, which tend to make new highs after initial

The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) is up +1.70% this morning, outperforming the S&P 500 (SPX) by ~120bps based on: 1) recession

The stagflation narrative gets a small boost from today’s lower than expected March Unemployment Rate ( 3.6% vs. 3.7%) as

We’ve pushed back on the recession signal quality of Tuesday’s curve inversion, citing the steep upward sloping real yield curve

We’re in the camp that questions the recession signaling quality from yesterday’s 2/10 nominal yield curve inversion.

The nominal 2/10 yield curve is very close to inverting, which should drive more reports of recession signaling and warnings

The 5/30 year yield curve inversion has started a Fed policy mistake/recession signaling narrative, particularly since the last 5/30 curve

The March 16 Fed rate hike acted as a clearing event to gradually unwind the uncertainty discount preceding liftoff. The

Notwithstanding unscheduled Russia/Ukraine developments, the calendar looks fairly quiet until CQ1 earnings season kicks off on 4/13. A lack of

Light positioning and extreme bearish sentiment keeps near-term equity market risk skewed to the upside. The usual internal signals that

The financial press will likely be focused on curve flattening in the months ahead, and it’s signaling for an eventual

Investor positioning has now moved back to March ’20 lows.  Broad market short interest is the highest it has been

The 11am Fed policy statement was a bit more hawkish than expected, promising ‘ongoing increases in the target rate,’ while

Brent price forecasts in the $150-$200 are worst-case scenarios based on little/no Russian supply finding its way to markets.  Oil

Ten-year Treasury yields now at ~2.12% are threatening to break through range resistance at 2.06%.  The close matters most, but

The S&P 500 continues to trade in the 4,100-4,300 support range as realized volatility slowly descends from recent highs.  Geopolitical

We see the SPX tracing out a bottom in the 4,100-4,300 as realized volatility cools. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)

Tomorrow’s US CPI report has been partially de-risked by Powell’s comments in support of a 25bps March rate hike, rather

This morning’s intraday equity reversal follows a specific headline, but exacerbated by an oversold technical dynamic in our ~4,100-4,300 support

Major European benchmarks closed well off worst levels today.  Reports will focus on the Euro Stoxx 50 (SX5E) falling into

The S&P 500 will struggle on rally attempts as long as equity market volatility remains elevated (VIX Index above 20).

The S&P 500 (SPX) has recovered +7% from the intraday low on 2/24 as momentum divergences triggered short covering and

The sanctions enacted against Russia have already taken a massive toll on the country.  Russian companies are unable to access

Higher commodity prices are driving inflation breakeven yields higher, while risk-off positioning pressures nominal yields lower.  The combination has taken

Recent events in Ukraine are more dramatic than what we initially assumed.  The impact to financial markets comes through higher

It’s very common for equities to rebound after a sharp/sudden correction. Since 1990, the average rebound from a ~10% correction

The Euro Stoxx 50 (SX5E) and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HSI) index are positively correlated with US value sector performance.

The consensus narrative expects sustained growth would only encourage the Fed to hike more until the inevitable policy mistakes create

Markets are fairly quiet today and likely to remain that way until Thursday morning’s CPI report. Higher energy prices throughout

We recently shifted our yield curve focus from the 5/30-year spread to the 2/10 spread to account for rising concerns

Today’s data will lead to increased weekend reports of rising inflation expectations.  But since January 3, inflation expectations as measured

Yesterday’s disappointing FB guidance arrived as the S&P 500 closed just beneath technical resistance near 4,600 and the CBOE Volatility

Covid-related economic disruptions should fade as we move deeper into the year, which may result in a fundamentally different macro

We continue to view the recent correction as bullish consolidation within an ongoing longer-term rally.  However, the S&P 500 (SPX)

The rally from oversold has the S&P 500 (SPX) set up for a period of base building under the 4500-4600

The focus was on MSFT/AAPL earnings and the Fed coming into the week.  The two large Tech names reported solid

The ~11% correction in the SPX mostly matches the scale of recent past episodes when monetary accommodation was initially removed.

The stability seen over the past two sessions comes after the S&P 500 (SPX) reached oversold conditions after an ~11%

Markets will be focused on four items from tomorrow’s Fed meeting: a signal on liftoff beginning in March, guidance on

The near-term path of least resistance is still aimed lower, but important to watch for a developing bullish narrative with

The main driver of the sell-off has been sharply higher bond yields at the start of the year.  The yield

Yesterday’s afternoon fade in the S&P 500 (SPX) looked like CTA selling and it’s important to see if the SPX

The most likely scenario from here still looks like a resumption in the cyclical recovery based on an end to

Bond yields will drive the near-term narrative as the 10-year approaches its 2020 high of 1.877%. We keep a Q1

This Friday kicks off CQ4 earnings season with a handful of large US banks reporting pre-open. Our preference to own

Yesterday’s reversal and today’s follow through in Tech has been chalked up to deeply oversold conditions, but conditions were not/are

Growth sectors underperformed value sectors by 585bps last week as bond yields rose and the curve steepened.  

Wednesday’s release of Fed minutes is still the main driver of recently higher nominal/real yields and value sector (Financials/Energy/Materials) outperformance.

Ten year yields are currently trading at 1.72% with mild resistance in the 1.90%-1.94% range, but the real number is

Valuation is a dull instrument for timing the entry and exit of investments.  Valuation requires a catalyst to make it

Over the past ~2 weeks, markets have been sending a signal that Omicron is the beginning of the end of

Low volatility, secular growth stocks outperformed into year-end reaching a record high premium to high beta stocks.  

The driver behind this week’s rally is a growing belief the Omicron wave will be widespread but relatively brief with

Light attendance and thin liquidity into a catalyst vacuum typically leads to trend continuation.  

The SPX tested near-term support at ~4545 yesterday.  A firmer core PCE number could bring a test of stronger, secondary

Support for 10-year Treasury yields sits in the 1.35%-1.40% zone with sustained levels north of 1.55% confirming a reversal to

Crowded positioning in Tech reflects a bias to own secular growth stocks following 12+ years of disinflation that resulted in

Today’s FOMC had been the primary focus for markets this week, but attention will quickly turn to tomorrow’s ECB meeting.

The S&P 500 failed to break pattern resistance yesterday with intraday levels suggesting a pullback to immediate support into last

Look for the Fed to double its tapering pace to $30B/month on Wednesday with the updated dot plot showing 3

Today’s in-line CPI report and Wednesday’s JOLTS report that implied tighter labor market conditions won’t change the near-term narrative on

Tomorrow’s CPI report will undoubtedly have an impact on markets.  From a longer-term perspective, inflation rates impact equities/equity valuations through

The fundamental landscape remains solid with bond yields, commodity prices, PMI data and earnings revisions keeping the balance of risks

The global cyclical recovery and reflation theme will likely be the dominant market narrative if the Omicron variant turns out

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) closed above it’s 50, 100 and 200-day moving averages every day last week.  Increased volatility

Government entities, Pharma and Health Care providers all cite a 2-week timeline to analyze the new variant.  Friday’s outsized move

The same positioning indicators have Energy as the most crowded sector short, with long positioning down ~90% over the last

The sector with the least crowded positioning at the moment also happens to be a good inflation hedge.  Underinvestment in

Higher real yields (nominal yields – inflation expectations) follow recent attention on easing supply bottleneck pressures on rising Asia vaccination

The NASDAQ 100 (NDX) has led all other major indices this week as 10-year real yields have remained anchored (now

The S&P 500 (SPX) should be upwardly biased into year-end as hedge fund managers avoid negative P&L on shorts.  

The Hang Seng Index (HSI) has spent the last two months building a base and now reversing from short-term oversold

We expect nominal bond yields to continue moving higher from here as long-end yields currently imply near zero GDP growth

Key support of the 5/30 yield curve sits in the 75-79bps range.  We expect the 5/30 curve to hold above

Key support of the 5/30 yield curve sits in the 75-79bps range.  We expect the 5/30 curve to hold above

Expect the S&P 500 (SPX) rally to decelerate in the days ahead as the index faces internal technical resistance at

Headlines out of Washington over the past ~12 hours suggest the risk of tax hikes can nearly be eliminated from

Yesterday, the S&P 500 closed beyond pre-identified resistance in the 4460-4590 range with broad sector participation. The price action adds

Two weeks ago, the S&P 500 (SPX) reversed from short-term oversold levels and above predefined support in the 4230-4250 range.

Inflation-related data early last week pointed to further pricing pressures with: 1) big increase in inflation expectations within the New

Covid-related drags should continue to fade in the weeks ahead, which will likely drive yields gently higher with curve steepening.

The Covid situation should continue to improve and extend the cyclical recovery.  Btw, Friday’s interim study results on MRK’s oral

Once the debt ceiling issue is resolved, we’d expect nominal bond yields to resume their recent back up with gentle

Today’s strong relief rally in Tech and Communication Services is a welcome development given their respective sector weightings within the

September global manufacturing PMI ticked up last week after 4 months of lower numbers.  May was the peak in global

The S&P 500 (SPX) continues to work through a seasonably bearish month.  Visible risks, including a China slowdown, Washington issues and

The S&P 500 has been holding up relatively well in the only historically bearish month of the year after price

Cyclical/value sector leadership still depends on bond yields moving higher.  US Treasury yields hammered out cycle lows in late-July/early-August with

The August Jobs Report capped off a series of mostly disappointing data including decent-sized downticks in August consumer confidence readings

The summer slump in growth data was largely attributed to delta variant concerns, but the outbreak has recently shown signs

August US PMI and ISM data confirmed the expanding business cycle, which helped small cap stocks (RTY Index) outperform during

Today’s payroll miss fits with the trend from the past 2-3 weeks. US and global economic data has clearly pointed

The significance of tomorrow’s payroll number hasn’t diminished, but expectations are lower than they were two weeks ago, which skews

The ADP private payroll survey isn’t always an accurate predictor of monthly non-farm payrolls, but today’s miss clearly lowers the

Light attendance and a relatively light catalyst calendar over the past two weeks have mostly led to trend continuation, but

Attendance and participation are expected to stay light this week heading into the long holiday weekend.  This happens every year

The S&P 500 Value Index (SVX) began a 3-month period of consolidation in early-May when bond yields started to decline.

After ~3 months of consolidation, the S&P 500 Value Index (SVX) is set up for a technical breakout. The S&P

Ten-year Treasury yields closed just above technical resistance levels in the 1.28%-1.32% range yesterday. A more significant breakthrough is required

As previewed, Financials (banks) outperformed on Friday and thus far today after the upside in July payrolls drove bond yields

Yesterday, we suggested a non-farm payroll print north of +900,000 would likely take the 10-year Treasury to 1.28%-1.30%, lead to

Consensus expectations for tomorrow’s release of non-farm payrolls is now +862,500. Consensus for the Unemployment Rate is 5.7% (down from

Today’s ADP private payroll numbers was softer than expected at +330,000.  The report has a relatively weak positive correlation to

Friday’s release of the July Jobs report is the next near-term macro catalyst.  Consensus for Non-farm payrolls is currently +825,000,

ISM deceleration to 59.5 from 60.6 last month is relatively meaningless and partially reflects ongoing bottleneck pressures.  The goods sector

The S&P 500 Value Index (SVX) has been relatively resilient over the past ~2 months, despite lower bond yields and

Real yields are higher this morning after Powell’s press conference takeaways pull taper announcement expectations slightly forward, while holding rate

Positioning in Tech is overcrowded, particularly after SNAP’s blowout results last week drove incremental interest in mega-cap names given broad

Global growth concerns emerged about a month ago when UK delta variant case counts started to rise.  But UK case

This is the busiest week on the summer catalyst calendar with peak Q2 earnings volume and no shortage of macro

Substantial declines in the Unemployment Rate are probably required before 10-year yields can inflect meaningfully higher…through resistance at ~1.45%.

A bearish narrative around peak growth started in May after April manufacturing ISM decelerated to 60.7 from 64.7 in March.

The Nasdaq 100 (NDX) pushed to record highs on lower bond yields.  The index pulled back with the SPX on

The S&P 500 held technical support in the 4200-4250 range yesterday, supporting our inclination to add cyclical/value exposure on the

The S&P 500 (SPX) trades to predetermined initial support in the 4200-4250 range after price trend deceleration early last week

The S&P 500 (SPX) closed last week at a record high after seven consecutive days of gains added +2.6%.

Longer-dated bonds (10+ years) have declined since the spike in US April CPI data on concerns for a Fed policy

Bond yields move lower and the yield curves flattens late in an economic cycle.  But late cycle dynamics also include

The recent advance in the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) to ~14,550 has exceeded pattern objectives of ~14,400, driven largely by a

Consensus for Friday’s release of June Non-farm payrolls ticks higher to +700,000 from +685,000 yesterday.

Global economic growth in the first half of the year will probably come in up +4.6%, which is a full

Headline and core May PCE (Fed’s favorite inflation gauge) fell short of expectations on a month-over-month basis, up +0.4% and

Optimism for a bipartisan/White House infrastructure package could be premature, but the headlines return markets to the ‘inflation/Fed policy mistake’

Last Wednesday’s Summary of Economic Projections from the FOMC included only small upside revisions to inflation forecasts, while the median

Yesterday’s backup in bond yields resulted in value (SVX) outperforming growth (SGX) by 99bps. Conditions for a systematic reversal in

Last week’s apparent hawkish Fed pivot had bond prices reaching further into extreme overbought territory, but yields still held support,

The Fed’s updated dot plot on Wednesday just moved closer to what markets have been signaling in OIS (overnight swaps)

Bond yields reflect market expectations of future rates of inflation or growth.  Higher future bond yields tend to lead cyclical

This week’s weaker guidance from JPM and C may set the stage for an oversold reversal as Fed stress test

Ten-year yields are trying to break through their 100-day moving average at 1.50%. The month-long rally in Treasuries (yields lower)

The next major event on the catalyst calendar is Wednesday’s FOMC meeting.  Markets are almost entirely focused on a possible

As previewed, Treasury yields move lower despite this morning’s hotter-than-expected May CPI report.

Consensus is looking for headline CPI to be up +0.4% month-over-month and +4.7% year-over-year.  Core CPI is expected to be

May CPI is scheduled for release this Thursday.  Year-over-year US CPI accelerated to +4.2% in April from +2.6% in March

Friday’s below consensus Nonfarm payroll print should be an incremental tailwind for the SPX as it helps keep the Fed

The reflex market reaction to the mild payroll disappointment has Treasury yields lower with growth equity sectors outperforming value.  But

Today’s ADP jobs report for May was very strong with private payrolls up +978,000 vs. consensus for +623,000. The correlation

Friday’s release of May Nonfarm payrolls will be the last major employment report into the June 15-16 FOMC meeting. The

Potential headwinds include: 1) the Fed’s tapering conversation could become an equity headwind if expectations shift forward (consensus looking for

Yesterday, we covered expectations for large cap banks to increase buybacks after June stress test results (late June). The increases

The new focus on Fed tapering has mixed implications for markets.  The near-term implications are net positive as the conversation

The S&P 500 has been rangebound since early-April with leadership shifting between growth and value sectors.  The recent, mild softening

Last week’s pickup in Eurozone flash PMI data has the region looking like a complimentary growth engine to the US

Momentum is a popular input for the vast majority of systematic factor models. As the economy continues to recover, the

PMI is a forward-looking diffusion index with levels above 50 implying expansion and levels below implying economic contraction.  The distance

At the moment, we see none of the internal and/or cross-market signals that usually precede meaningful equity correction. Last Wednesday,

The next catalyst for bond yields will be the release of US and Eurozone flash May PMIs this Friday.  The

Stay focused on value sectors (Financials, Materials and Energy), small-cap indices like the Russell 2000 (RTY) and value stocks within

Some of today’s big upside CPI print can be attributed to base effects, meaning the magnitude will likely prove transitory,

We’re seeing supply constraints because demand is so strong with the next major data point due this Friday with the

Bond yields are lower this morning, but the value trade continues to outperform as attention stays on improving PMI data.

Over 50% of S&P companies have now reported Q1 results with improved metrics driving the 2022 consensus SPX EPS estimate

Powell pushed back on expectations for QE tapering during the press conference, saying it’s not yet appropriate to “think about

Our preference to add cyclical/value equity exposure over growth exposure started in mid-September when real yields made a long-term secular

The recent consolidation in bond yields is a mean reversion trade after prices became deeply oversold in mid-March.  The consolidation

The recent consolidation in bond yields has been mostly driven by technical flows from private pension plans and some systematic

The impact of Biden’s proposed infrastructure spending plan is also net-negative for equities.

The recovery in growth stocks over the past three weeks followed lower bond yields based on technical flows (CTA positioning),

The S&P 500 (SPX) appears to be in consolidation mode after four straight weeks of gains totaling nearly 8%. The

The fundamental justification behind the recent pullback in bond yields must be rooted in concerns around the sustainability of the

Ten-year Treasury yields declined by 11bps at one point yesterday (closed 6bps lower), despite much stronger-than-expected US data. Short-covering is

Ten-year Treasury yields are extending below first technical support in the 1.62%-1.64% range.  Closing levels are far more important, but

Ultimately, we expect higher bond yields, more curve steepening and a return of cyclical/value equity leadership during Q2.  Look for

The profit outlook going into CQ1 earnings season is highly supportive for the broad equity market. There’s been some concern

Equities should have further upside for the next several months/quarters as we enter the early stages of a cyclical recovery.

The total pullback in the S&P 500 (SPX) that followed mid-March price trend deceleration matched our expectation for the index

Tomorrow’s release of FOMC minutes from the March 17 meeting will be closely examined for any hints on the timing

Ten year bond yields continue to consolidate below ~1.74%.  Bond prices are finally responding to deeply oversold conditions and expect

Ten-year Treasury yields are currently trading at 1.68%, matching our expectation for a period of consolidation below the 3/19 intraday

Ten-year Treasury yields remain just under the highs from 3/19. Releasing through 1.74% would likely pressure growth equity multiples further

Thursday’s release of final March manufacturing PMIs and US manufacturing ISM will influence bond yields.  US and global economic activity

The rapid acceleration we’ve been expecting in global growth has started.  US credit card spending data accelerated 1800bps last week

Our focus has been on adding cyclical/value equity exposure since real yields bottomed in mid-September. Since 9/15/20, the S&P 500

The S&P 500 is consolidating after another period of decelerating price trend momentum. We saw similar activity mid-last month with

Reopening beneficiaries have been under pressure over the past two sessions, ostensibly based on rising case counts in pockets of

The bond market has been under consistent bearish pressure over the past 5 weeks despite deeply oversold conditions. During that

We’ve already seen a very large rebound in goods prices with booming factory output and the case for inflation now

This week’s ECB meeting provided a one-day pause in the backup on promises of accelerating bond buying. With 24 hours

The NASDAQ 100 is rebounding as 10-year yields consolidate below technical resistance in the 1.61-1.70% range. A sustained NDX close

Decelerating price trend momentum in the S&P 500 (SPX) from mid-February resulted in a pull back to technical support in

Today’s reversal in bond yields follows our technical script with 10-year yields fading near secondary resistance in the 1.65-1.70% range.

By late summer, equity positioning in value sectors (Materials, Financials and Energy) had declined ~40% year-over-year. The Q4 cyclical/value rally retraced

Bond yields always rise as you exit a recession.  But the very recent increase in yields appears to be driven

Presently trading at ~1.53%, ten-year Treasury yields are testing the highs from last Thursday.  Another breakout in bond yields would

The preference for cyclical/value sectors is beginning to look more like a potentially painful rotation out of growth.  High multiple

Yesterday’s rally in US equities was attributed to a stabilization in bond yields largely due to rhetorical intervention from the

Markets are definitely more calm following Friday’s reversal in bond yields.  Obviously, a more gradual yield backup is preferred from

The recent pullback in the S&P 500 looks very similar to the one from late January, which ended up being

The 5-year/30-year yield spread is currently priced to 161.3bps and approaching resistance at ~162bps.  We remain intermediate-term bullish on the

Last week’s report on January retail sales came in +5.3% (+6% for the control group) vs. consensus for +1%. This

At 1.33%, 10-year Treasury yields are currently testing secondary technical resistance in the 1.30-1.35% range. We’re not expecting a breakthrough

While the conditions that caused the 2003/2013 yield spikes don’t seem to exist at the moment, it’s also important to

Sharply higher bond yields has been the identifiable risk for equities since the 11/9 PFE/BNTX vaccine data. Over the last

Our preference to add cyclical/value equity exposure (Industrials, Materials and Financials) was initially based on real yields bottoming back in

Yesterday, the 5-year/30-year yield spread cleared technical resistance at ~143bps on rising expectations for Democrats to use the budget reconciliation

Better-than-expected US economic data plus an improved vaccination pace argue against additional large-scale fiscal relief at this time but it

Rising expectations for large-scale fiscal stimulus and US vaccination progress are resulting in higher yields and curve steepening. Democrats sound

Q4 earnings season is trending better than expected with ~85% of S&P 500 companies beating consensus earnings vs. an average

Overnight vaccine headlines may not read universally positive, but bond yields are higher and the curve is steeper post-release.  Ten-year

The coordinated short-squeeze in GME and others from Reddit’s blog posts forced a mechanical de-leveraging yesterday, which led to the

In the short-run, markets are influenced by fundamentals, sentiment and positioning.  In the long-run, markets are only interested in fundamentals

The move lower in 10-year Treasury yields has created an opportunity to add cyclical/value equity exposure. Bond yields have significant

The near-term dynamic in bond yields is creating a pullback in cyclical and value sectors.  We see the pullback as

JNJ efficacy data in the 80% range would further weigh on fiscal stimulus expectations that already appear challenged.  Markets had

Increased fiscal stimulus expectations and vaccine optimism have been presented together in the recent bullish narrative, but these two themes

Very early Q4 earnings metrics are coming in much stronger than expected. Overnight results from NFLX, UNH, MS, JBHT and

Bond prices are in a developing bear market and yields are heading higher.  Globalization and technological changes have been weighing

Biden’s ~$1.9T fiscal stimulus plan was already priced into markets and today’s sell-the-news reaction fits our preview from Wednesday.  Fiscal

Some of the recent back-up in bond yields reflects high expectations for increased fiscal stimulus/spending.  The unveiling of Biden’s economic

Ten year Treasury yields are presently testing secondary technical resistance at ~1.16%. Treasury prices are now short-term oversold and odds

Higher bond yields shouldn’t become a problem for value sectors in the near-term. Ten-year Treasury yields above ~1.16% would likely

The US Jobs Report for December disappoints with nonfarm payrolls down -140,000 vs consensus for +50,000 and November’s +245,000. 

We turned incrementally positive on cyclically sensitive ‘value’ sectors in mid-September. Our level of conviction level increased on October 21

Upward pressure on bond yields has been in our forecast since mid-September and a key piece in our preference to

At some point higher bond yields become a problem for equity multiples. In a world without QE, bond yields reflect

A Democrat surprise in GA this week would likely trigger a further decline in the US dollar, an increase in

The positive PFE/BNTX data on 11/9 brought higher bond yields and curve steepening. The rise-over-run between the 5-year Treasury yield

The perception around fiscal spending has already begun to shift away from ‘more is better.’ We discussed this back in

We’ve held a bullish equity outlook since credit spreads narrowed in late March.  Our bullish outlook was based on a

We’ve had a pro-cyclical/value bias since mid-September.  At the time, financial conditions remained extremely favorable, Tech multiples had stopped expanding

Most equity indices have seen decelerating price trend momentum over the past two weeks despite improved stimulus and vaccine headlines.

Yesterday’s advance in the SPX puts the index in range of new highs this week.  But a loss of momentum

The S&P 500 (SPX) is short-term overbought with extreme/elevated bullish sentiment as primary near-term concerns. At the moment, there’s no

We have a cautious near-term outlook based on extreme bullish equity sentiment (contrarian indicator) and short-term overbought conditions. Bullish sentiment

Visible concerns around stretched valuations in Tech first appeared in early September when impressive earnings failed to generate price appreciation.

Equity sentiment reached bullish extremes three weeks ago and the SPX is now short-term overbought. In our experience, periods of

The 5-day moving average of the CBOE Equity Put/Call ratio and weekly AAII sentiment survey are both at bullish extremes.

Three weeks ago, the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) equity sentiment survey reached bullish extremes with a reading of

Cyclical and value sectors (Industrials, Financials, Materials and Energy) have been leading the S&P 500 to record highs since the

Two weeks ago, equity sentiment reached bullish extremes, with the weekly AAII poll registering its second highest level in history

Last year at this time (11/30/19), we expressed an emerging preference for cyclical/value sectors when global manufacturing PMI crossed into

The market-cap weighted S&P 500 (SPX) is on track to gain +11% for the month of November, while the equal

Next week includes earnings for a number of SMID-cap cloud software/growth companies including ZM (Monday pm), BOX/CRM (Tuesday pm), CRWD/OKTA/SNOW/SPLK

The 2007 financial crises started the current period of disinflation, which has led to a 13-year cycle (so far) of

The market remains focused on vaccine headlines for a third consecutive week. And reports discussing the potential for inoculations to

The S&P 500 (SPX) has spent this week consolidating post-election and vaccine-related gains from the prior two weeks. Investors were

Having cleared technical resistance at ~3581, the S&P 500 should have an easier time pushing higher. Our intermediate concern is

The preference for value sectors continues with the S&P 500 Value Index (SVX) up +10.47% since October 1 vs. the

The November BofA Global Fund Manager Survey noted cash levels fell to 4.1% from 4.4% last month.  This level is

The market response to the MRNA data will be less violent than last Monday given elevated expectations, but value sectors

Yesterday’s ‘afternoon fade’ had the S&P 500 closing below technical resistance at ~3581. A sustained close above ~3581 opens the

The 90% efficacy number from the PFE/BNTX candidate is surprisingly high. Of the first 94 people to get infected, more

Trading patterns and option term premia suggest the big volatility buyer in Tech is back.  You can also see this

Equities are higher again today as markets bake-in a Biden and McConnell outcome. Trump still has a path to 270

Markets generally prefer a balance of power in Washington.  Expectations for Republicans to retain a narrow Senate majority largely de-risks

Better-than-expected Q3 reports from Tech companies mostly see a sell-the-news reaction as investors slowly shift away from growth/momentum toward cyclical/value

Any election scenario that doesn’t involve a weeks-long contested outcome should result in an initial equity market rally. Rotation into

Equities will likely remain under pressure until the election is completed.  Markets apply an uncertainty discount to upcoming events and

Many sell-side strategists have recently warmed up to the Democrat sweep scenario based on expectations for massive fiscal spending. But

Yesterday, the S&P 500 broke our near-term support level at ~3400 and currently testing secondary support at ~3295.  A number

The contested election scenario has reemerged as the primary risk, given we’re one week out with no fiscal stimulus and

This week is the busiest week of Q3 earnings season with ~33% of the Russell 1000 reporting. Just over 25%

From an equity perspective, a contested election looks like the worst-case, short-term scenario coming out of 11/3. Fortunately, it’s a

For this publication, a ‘Democrat sweep’ is defined as a Biden victory and Democrat-controlled Senate. A blue wave scenario is

Control of the Senate is the largest near-term macro issue for markets. Expectations for large-scale fiscal spending under a Democrat

Equity markets continue to price significant risk of a contested election outcome. The best indication comes from the VIX futures

The S&P 500 (SPX) remains above its previous technical resistance zone/now support at ~3420-3450.  A break below ~3420 would change

We’ve stayed bullish on US equities during the retracement and beyond based on a number of factors still in place

At the moment, the S&P 500 (SPX) is on track for a third consecutive lower daily close on gloomy COVID

Sell-side analysts tend to lower estimates during a quarter, but Q3’20 was one of the rare instances when the opposite

: Biden’s rising poll numbers have reduced concerns over the potential for contested election results. Investors are still positioned for

Previews of Q3 earnings season focus on elevated expectations based on increased estimates during the quarter.  Tomorrow morning kicks off

The consensus 2021 S&P 500 EPS estimate has quietly climbed from ~$165 to ~$168 over the last three weeks. Without

Anticipation of sharply higher government spending under a Biden + Democrat sweep has led to a relatively significant increase in

Yesterday’s House antitrust announcement aimed at GOOGL, AMZN, FB and AAPL (consumer focused) has been in the works for more

: We continue to expect a successful test of the 9/2 record high before year end with cyclical/value leadership under

The pullback in the S&P 500 (SPX) and NASDAQ 100 (NDX) started on 9/3 after CIEN issued unusually bad guidance.

: September headline net job additions missed, coming in at +661,000 vs consensus for +850,000 but other components of the

The CQ2 earnings season was far better than expected and it’s difficult not to be upbeat about the performance of

The US ADP jobs report for September was solid at +749,000 vs consensus for 649,000 and up from 481,000 in

: Global manufacturing PMI crossed into expansion territory in July at 50.6 and extended to 51.8 in August. China doesn’t

Last week, many economists finally removed near-term fiscal stimulus from their Q4 GDP growth estimates. The estimated $1T-$1.5T fiscal package

Election uncertainty and a failure by Congress (thus far) to agree on a fiscal relief package have combined to pressure

Election uncertainty and a failure by Congress (thus far) to agree on a fiscal relief package have combined to pressure

: Interim data from the Phase 3 PFE/BNTX study are expected late next month with Phase 3 MRNA results shortly

Over the last 7 sessions, the S&P 500 and nearly all of its Tech sector constituents have moved from overbought

Some of the high frequency US economic data (credit card spending, mobility etc) began to decelerate toward the end of

Value sectors have outperformed growth sectors so far in September.  The S&P 500 Value Index (SVX) has outperformed the S&P

Expectations for pre-election fiscal relief may have ticked higher following Tuesday’s $1.5T proposal from bipartisan moderates. Meadows continues to sound

1) Today’s Fed meeting is mostly expected to be a non-event; 2) low expectations for a fifth fiscal relief bill

The SPX is building a short-term technical base below the 9/2 all-time closing high of 3580. Many SPX constituents have

The fundamental outlook continues to improve on a stronger than expected economic recovery, earnings recovery (evident in recently constructive forward

: At current levels, the S&P 500 (SPX) sits just above strong technical support in the 3220-3310 range. The Nasdaq

As discussed yesterday, markets don’t usually make a top on accelerating price momentum and elevated bearish sentiment.  And last Wednesday’s

We continue to view the recent pullback in the SPX as a pause rather than the beginning of an immediate,

The S&P 500 is currently down ~6.2% from last Wednesday’s record close and trading below initial technical support at ~3410.

Thus far, the current sell-off in software stocks looks like episodes from the past two years (2018 and 2019), which

Today’s sell-off in Tech looks like the begging of a ‘healthy short-term correction’ amid crowded positioning and record-high multiples. The

The market will face a couple of potential downside catalysts over the next ~2 months. The first catalyst is the

The market will face a couple of potential downside catalysts over the next ~2 months. The first catalyst is the

The market will face a couple of potential downside catalysts over the next ~2 months. The first catalyst is the

Rising bond yields have the potential to create problems for momentum sectors like Tech where positioning has become crowded.  Tech

The ~$3T Cares Act was largely financed by the issuance of T-bills, which means the amount of debt maturing within

US August flash PMIs extended further into expansion territory with manufacturing coming in at 53.6 vs consensus for 52, and

At new highs, the S&P 500 may not face overhead supply but technical resistance still exists. At the moment, the

US August flash PMIs extended further into expansion territory with manufacturing coming in at 53.6 vs consensus for 52, and

US August flash PMIs extended further into expansion territory with manufacturing coming in at 53.6 vs consensus for 52, and

The S&P 500 faded from intraday highs following the release of July FOMC meeting minutes, but there was nothing in

Yesterday’s record high close in the SPX was by the thinnest of margins and more strength is required to clear

Earlier this morning, the S&P 500 briefly traded above the February 19, 2020 intraday record high of 3393. That’s encouraging

Thus far, investors haven’t been using growth stocks as a funding source for increased positioning in cyclical/value sectors. Still-light broad

Ten-year Treasury yields hit an eight week high yesterday and 30-year yield broke through the 50 and 100-day moving average

The last two weeks of initial jobless claims came in lower than expected, the July Jobs Report exceeded expectations, July

The narrative on vaccines has shifted from ‘if’ to ‘when’, which has also shifted the predominant investment theme from ‘COVID

Last week, the S&P 500 broke through another consolidation zone, filled the downside gap from February 24 and ready to

Overall equity positioning remains light, but positioning in software is crowded and multiples are at all-time highs. Software is the

For the past three months, we’ve argued in favor of cyclical stocks with sustainable dividend yields. These are cyclical companies

Mnuchin said he’s trying to complete the fiscal package agreement by the end of the week, which was echoed by

With the key Q2 S&P 500 earnings metrics now well entrenched and understood, the focus for the balance of the

Little progress has been made on a fifth coronavirus relief package, but there’s interest from all sides to get something

Dollar: The recent decline in the dollar mostly stems from a perceived growth and policy differential between the US and

Today’s risk-off tone comes a day before the fiscal cliff arrives and agreement for a relief package seems distant. The

In theory, the combination of a supportive Fed and increased fiscal spending will result in inflation. If it’s based on

Tech companies tend to report later in earnings season, but a handful of names that reported better than expected results

This week marks the peak of Q2 earnings season with ~38% of S&P 500 companies scheduled to report. About 25%

The bullish equity narrative includes: 1) much faster than expected economic recovery to date; 2) increased fiscal support; 3) ongoing

The S&P 500 pushed through technical resistance on Monday, which makes the old cycle high of ~3225 new short-term support.

This seems like an appropriate time to dust off the adage that ‘bull markets climb a wall of worry.’ The

It’s still very early with only 55 companies in the S&P 500 having now reported Q2 results. Of those reporting,

: A fifth US coronavirus relief package will be in focus this week and we may begin to see details

The outperformance from value sectors (Financials, Materials and Energy) this week looks more like portfolio rebalancing than a large scale

The recent outperformance in cyclical/value sectors follows better economic data (US ESI at record +270.80), some renewed vaccine optimism and

The past three sessions have been characterized by cyclical sector and value-style leadership. Equity market rallies on cyclical leadership are

As previewed, yesterday’s strength in value sectors (Financials, Materials and Energy) came at the expense of high-quality secular growth names

Three large banks (BAC, C and JPM) report Q2 earnings tomorrow before the open with loan loss reserves and forward

The Economic Surprise Index (ESI) hit another record high of +225.90 today vs a prior cycle high of +84.5 reached

I know the headlines read differently, but new case and hospitalization data in AL, CA, FL, NV, SC and TX

Since the March 23 low,  value sectors have outperformed for two brief windows matched with decelerating US infection rates in

Financial markets are closely tracking coronavirus outbreak metrics and ignoring the headlines. And the S&P 500 is giving any positive

The increase in the June ISM non-manufacturing Index was the largest single-month gain in the index’s 23-year history. Of course,

June payroll adds of +4.8MM far exceeds consensus for a second consecutive month and clearly a positive development. However, the

Thursday’s release of weekly jobless claims and June payroll data (day early because markets are closed Friday) has the potential

China June PMIs are expected to stay slightly decelerate but stay in expansion territory with consensus looking for manufacturing at

The significance of rising case counts in TX, FL and CA are now being watched for signs of a coincident

Weekly claims came in at 1.48M down from 1.54M and 1.56M in the prior two weeks but higher than consensus

Troubling coronavirus headlines are the main driver on rising US case counts (still South and West) and the reimposition of

The US and global economy are recovering from the quickest and deepest recession ever. During a recovery, there’s a strong

June Fed surveys (Empire manufacturing and Philadelphia Fed) that were released last week came in well-ahead of consensus. Economic data

Light equity positioning and elevated bearish sentiment are keeping the pain trade aimed higher. Yesterday’s release of weekly AAII sentiment

Markets are always looking 6-9 months into the future and the direction of growth matters more than the magnitude. Based

Yesterday’s rebound in the S&P 500 was attributed to several drivers, but the most important was the better-than-expected May retail

Yesterday’s intraday rally followed a Fed announcement about removing structural hurdles on corporate bond purchase eligibility for its facility originally

The short-term bearish narrative includes two main risks including escalating US/China tensions and the possible reimposition of coronavirus lockdowns. A

US high frequency data (traffic, employee time management and weekly claims for example) continues to suggest a steady rebound in

The sell-off in US equities mostly attributed to bearish FOMC/Powell takeaways on the economy, rising Covid numbers and concerns of

Recent strength in cyclical/value sectors is unwinding for a second consecutive session. It’s too early to make a call and

The S&P 500 is up +44% since the March 23 low with the z-scores on some momentum indicators nearing 1.5σ.

Cyclical sector leadership is important for the sustainability of broad market gains. The early outperformance of cyclical sectors in late

‘Skepticism’ is based on an apparent disconnect between presently weak economic conditions and the recent performance in equity markets. These

Recessions take some time to run their course due to a negative feedback loop that runs from weak labor markets

Elevated bearish investor sentiment and still cautious positioning continue to keep the pain trade aimed higher. Recent outperformance from cyclical

The recent relative outperformance of cyclical/value sectors (Consumer Discretionary, Industrials Financials, Materials and Energy) is sending a positive signal for

As noted yesterday, the S&P 500 successfully cleared technical resistance and the 250-day moving Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) of

With the SPX now through 3000, it makes sense to focus even more attention on internal signals in sector and

The cyclical/value rotation from last August and September was based on rising expectations for above-trend global growth. The catalyst was

The S&P 500 is currently trading above key technical resistance at ~2950, above its 200-day Moving Average and above some

US equities mostly lower with the S&P 500 still on track for a +2.5% weekly gain. Bond proxies and defensive

Yesterday’s release of the most recent Fed meeting minutes confirmed our expectations that QE purchases will conveniently match Treasury bond

Curve steepening is helping cyclical and ‘value’ sectors outperform for a third straight session. Rally attempts based on cyclical sector

The S&P 500 low on 3/23 was preceded by a record high in the CBOE equity put/call ratio on 3/12.

The WSJ’s Greg Ip noted some high frequency data that points to early signs of a US recovery: 1) map

Equity prices definitely adjust based on real-time developments. And equities do become overvalued, disconnected from reality and vulnerable to significant

The most important considerations for equities are always interest rates and bond yields. Both are extremely bullish for equities at

The drivers behind yesterday afternoon’s fade include: 1) Los Angeles lock-down extension news; 2) California State University System announcing plans

There are more than two sides to every story, but we’d stay focused on liquidity dynamics. Again, the current recession

The S&P 500’s ~30% recovery from the 3/23 trough comes as a surprise to many investors who remain cautious and

Fed funds futures are beginning to point in the direction of negative interest rates in 2021. The ECB currently has

Bearish equity sentiment as measured by the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) weekly sentiment poll reached an all-time record

Most expect the path for the SPX is largely incumbent on the speed of the economic normalization process. But the

Bearish equity sentiment, light equity positioning and massive amounts of liquidity remain highly supportive. Individual investor equity sentiment is a

Linearity has been the big theme during Q1 earnings calls with glimmers of hope (MA, V and BAC notably) for

The S&P 500 continues to mostly tack the US new case curve. US new case counts are well off their

The bearish narrative is primarily focused on a slower than expected ramp in economic activity coming out of lockdown and

Today and tomorrow is the peak 48 hour period for CQ1 earnings season in the US and Europe. Notwithstanding the

The S&P 500 is bumping into overhead technical resistance at the ~2900 level and still burning off short-term overbought conditions.

We’ve all heard that a coronavirus vaccine will take at least 18-months to develop. But there are also reports of

Next week marks the peak of CQ1 earnings season but SPX EPS estimates are now fairly well established with top-down

Light equity positioning and nearly-unanimous bearish sentiment keep the balance of risks skewed to the upside. This morning’s release of

Tomorrow brings weekly jobless claims with consensus looking for 4.25MM vs 5.245MM last week. There’s no debate that the global

From an equity perspective the most important piece of data is still weekly jobless claims report announced Thursday mornings. Thus

As discussed on Friday, the main driver behind the rally to date is extremely light equity positioning among all investor

Equity positioning remains extremely favorable and should keep the balance of risk skewed to the upside. As I alluded to

• Some focus on a deceleration in weekly jobless claims that came in at 5.245M vs 6.615M last week and

Weaker than expected US economic data gets credit for today’s reversal but the more important reports are tomorrow’s release of

At current levels, the S&P 500 is near the upper-end of a fairly easy-to-identify technical resistance zone of ~2750-2840. At

Market participants typically begin using forward-year SPX EPS estimates around the middle of the year, but that process may begin

Next Tuesday kicks off the CQ1 earnings season with the first few days mostly focused on results for large US

Yesterday’s late afternoon fade in the S&P 500 had the index closing at 2659, which just happens to be inside

Credit spreads: The CDX Investment Grade credit spread narrows another ~10bps to ~107. The spread was in the 40-50bps range

OPEC+ will hold an emergency meeting Monday, but the probability of anything close to a 10M barrel per day cut

OPEC+ will hold an emergency meeting Monday, but the probability of anything close to a 10M barrel per day cut

Trump’s comment about a “ten million barrel and possibly more” Saudi/Russia production cut was more than enough to start today’s

From a market stability perspective, the most important piece of last week’s fiscal bill was the $400B Treasury ESF that

Reports citing progress in Seattle and New Rochelle helped sentiment yesterday. More reports today discuss relative success from early social

The ~13.5% bounce off last Monday’s closing low followed a narrowing in high yield credit spreads from ~885bps to last

The Fed’s various liquidity facilities have eased some market stress, evidenced by the contraction in High Yield credit spreads. Monday

The S&P 500 is bouncing off deeply oversold levels after a successful two-session revers