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Morning Notes — Beyond Year-End and Near-Term Event Risk

Beyond Year-End and Near-Term Event Risk

December 20, 2019

The bullish narrative should remain in place through year end based on a quiet catalyst calendar. The major macro uncertainties that existed through most of the year have seemingly been resolved…at least for the time being. A de-escalation of trade tensions is at the heart of narrative, followed by renewed Fed balance sheet expansion and signs that global growth is now stabilizing. As you know, we contend the stabilization will eventually lead to above trend growth with inventory restocking surprising most strategists. Keep in mind that global growth has been suppressed by trade, which is a non-systemic source. During this time, policymakers have been working overtime to supply liquidity and induce spending behavior through fiscal measures. And when things go right in an economy, they tend to build on themselves.