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Morning Notes — CQ4 Earning Season

CQ4 Earning Season

December 18, 2019

Remarks from the Fed’s Kaplan and Rosengren yesterday match expectations for the central bank to keep policy rates on hold for the foreseeable future. Every Fed speaker since last week’s FOMC has sounded the same despite their own reputation for being either dovish or hawkish. As we’ve noted before, there’s more accommodation in the pipeline through the first half of next year with plans for the Fed to increase its balance sheet. And it’s rare, but possible for the Fed and policy to be become relatively inconsequential until they release their policy review sometime in the middle of 2020. The policy review is expected to further articulate the conditions that would cause them to tighten monetary conditions. Accommodative monetary policy potentially stretching three quarters into next year is a major part of the bullish narrative.