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November 18, 2025
The sentiment-driven pullback saw the SPX close below its 50-day moving average yesterday for the first time since early May. A close below the 50-day moving average isn’t that significant from a technical perspective, but the 30-week streak speaks to the orderly nature of the rally since May. A break below the 50-day may also encourage CTAs to shed some length, but the more significant technical level sits at the September-October range lows near 6550 and we are using closing levels below 6525 to confirm a downside reversal. In our view, a sustained close below 6525 would be a reason to reduce exposure. However, as of now, the SPX remains in a bullish trend which makes reversals from pullbacks an opportunity to add exposure.
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