Inside Markets

Labor market weakness sits at the top of most people’s list of worries, followed by Fed policy, AI visibility, and tariff policy outcomes.

A Supreme Court decision to strike down IEEPA tariffs could cause a short squeeze for heavy importers and a potentially dangerous spike in bond market volatility.

Narrow market breadth is a bearish internal signal that deserves attention if it lasts more than a few sessions.

Our bullish fundamental framework from May that includes resilient macro data, better earnings growth and thawing trade tensions remains intact.

There is never a shortage of identifiable risks for equity markets with the obvious near-term risk being a ‘nothing done’ on a US-China trade deal.

There’s never a shortage of risk factors and next week’s Trump-Xi meeting is the near-term wildcard where we see risk/reward skewed to the downside.

Last week’s uptick in volatility and this week’s rotation out of momentum stocks have made the near-term equity backdrop more challenging.

The rotation out of the momentum factor and AI themes picked up yesterday on reports that ChatGPT’s VP for Science misrepresented the model’s capabilities in solving complex math problems.

Oracle’s pullback following last week’s analyst meeting could signal market doubt around AI capex ROI or the usual profit taking/de-risking that occurs before a known catalyst (Friday’s CPI report).

The SPX may be nearing the end of the consolidation phase we flagged on October 7.