Inside Markets

We entered a new phase in markets when 2-year Treasury yields broke above 4.80%. This was the level we identified as significant in our March 14th edition of Inside Markets.

Monday’s upside retail sales number (proxy for GDP growth) combined with three consecutive hot CPI prints are now driving increased concern that the Fed will have to make a hawkish pivot sometime in Q3 or Q4.

The relatively muted reaction in commodities means that geopolitical headlines had little to do with yesterday’s sell off in equity markets.

US equities begin the week lower as investors digest the weekend’s geopolitical developments in the Middle East.

US equities are broadly lower after a hotter-than-expected CPI print.

Option pricing implies a 1.3% (+/-) move following tomorrow’s CPI print. Consensus is looking for a +0.3% MoM increase in headline and core CPI.

Wednesday’s CPI report is the most important near-term catalyst, with consensus is looking for headline MoM CPI to come in at +0.3%, which would put the YoY rate at +3.4%, up from +3.2% in February. The street is also looking for a core rate of

The intraday sell-off in equity markets yesterday started with a spike in crude prices, which led to a small spike in equity volatility.

The March ISM services print, including a sharp drop in price, provided relief to markets after Monday’s hot ISM manufacturing number

Yesterday’s pullback in the SPX triggered a number of questions about whether this is the end of the rally.