Inside Markets — Pain Trade
The pain trade remains skewed to the upside with the SPX just ~2.4% below its all-time high.
Inside Markets — Bullish Outlook Intact
The strength we have seen over the last two weeks has largely been driven by lower bond yields, hopeful trade rhetoric and bullish AI readthroughs.
Inside Markets — SPX Price Objective
The technical outlook shifted back into a low-volatility bullish regime after the S&P 500 (SPX) and Nasdaq 100 (NDX) gapped above key resistance on May 12.
Inside Markets — Month-End Rebalancing
Month-end rebalancing likely played a role in yesterday’s fade from best levels, with the SPX now short-term overbought and in need of consolidation.
Inside Markets — Technical Outlook Remains Bullish
Last week’s backup in bond yields was almost entirely driven by rising term premium – this is the extra yield investors require to hold longer-term bonds.
Inside Markets — Pressure on Bond Yields
The 20-year Treasury auction just hit with the final yield 1.2 basis points higher than expected.
Inside Markets — Revised Outlook
Last Monday’s upside gap through the 5750-5785 resistance zone invalidated the tactical bearish trend that developed after April 2.
Inside Markets — Lower Recession Probability
Weekend de-escalation in the U.S./China trade war resulted in economists lowering their 12-month recession probabilities.
Inside Markets — Pain Trade
The average peak-to-trough decline in a recession-driven bear market is ~34%, while historical bear markets (peak-to-trough declines
Inside Markets — New Phase
Equities have likely entered a brief but bullish phase when good news/data is good and bad news/data is ignored.