Inside Markets — Wall of Worry

Labor market weakness sits at the top of most people’s list of worries, followed by Fed policy, AI visibility, and tariff policy outcomes.  If a ‘bull market must climb a wall of worry,’ the current list should serve as a decent foundation for higher levels – especially when you get resolutions on one or two items.  In the near-term, AI visibility will be addressed on the 11/19 NVDA earnings print. On Fed policy, it seems likely that the committee will deliver another 25bp cut in December unless we see an unlikely surge in hiring.  In that case, a pause in December should have little/no impact on equity markets. From our perspective, a Supreme Court decision to vacate the IEEPA tariff rationale could be an underrated headwind.  We saw the bullish price action in retailers and cyclical equity groups last week when comments from the court raised serious doubt over IEEPA as a justification.  While details of a ruling against IEEPA would be important factors, reversing the tariffs now would likely add a small uncertainty discount to equity markets as the administration finds other means to reinstate them.