Rotation
December 1, 2025
The rotation into retailers (hard/soft lines) and transports (truckers/airlines) continues with relatively upbeat headlines regarding Black Friday shopping trends helping both groups this morning. According to data from Adobe, total season (November 1-November 28) spend was up +7.1% YoY, while data from Mastercard showed U.S. retail sales ex-autos up +4.1% YoY on Black Friday (November 28) alone. Note that both sources are reporting data in nominal terms (not adjusting for inflation). Also interesting was Adobe breaking out AI-driven traffic, which showed an +805% increase from very low base. In our view, a bias favoring stocks that benefit from a reboot of growth expectations should last for 2-3 more weeks.
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