Morning Notes — US-Iran Tensions Ease
The initial market response to Iran’s missile attack followed the script, but the event is now viewed as a small positive as it appears both sides seem eager to deescalate.
Morning Notes — Next Week
Markets aren’t completely ignoring rising Middle East tensions. As noted yesterday, the issue will likely be assigned an appropriate risk premium to, at least temporarily, keep a lid on multiple expansion.
Morning Notes — Geopolitical Risk
US-China trade is clearly the short-term focus for markets. But not too far behind is US inflation data following the recent core PCE reading of 1.5%.
Year End Letter
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Morning Notes — More 2020 Forecast
Monetary easing this year from the Fed, Emerging Markets and fiscal stimulus from EM Asia in particular, has arrested the trade-induced slide in global growth. The recent Q4’19 rally in the SPX started when global manufacturing PMI began forming a base.
Morning Notes — 2020 Forecast
We think the biggest driver next year will be above-trend global growth. Monetary easing from the Fed and EM, plus fiscal stimulus from EM Asia has already improved the leading-edge indicators (manufacturing PMIs) of global growth.
Morning Notes — Early 2020 Catalysts and More
Light attendance, low volume and an absence of incremental catalysts keeps the prevailing trend in place until something big enough comes along to challenge the current narrative.