
Inside Markets — Small Cap
This week’s equity rally started with narrow leadership that broadened out as incrementally dovish Fed messaging moved through markets.
This week’s equity rally started with narrow leadership that broadened out as incrementally dovish Fed messaging moved through markets.
Recall, a tactically bullish fundamental outlook requires ongoing U.S. macro resilience, earnings growth, and favorable trade rhetoric.
According to the Fed, U.S. consumer cash reserves reached a record $21T in Q1’25, up from $14.8T in Q4’19.
The near-term setup for equities is favorable if we can assume we’re past peak geopolitical risk (
Markets have a history of largely ignoring geopolitical risks as these events tend to be short-lived.
A more challenging near-term fund flow dynamic increases the probability of corrective price action.
The SPX shifted back to a low-volatility, bullish regime on May 12, which made February’s all-time high the near-term price objective.
U.S. equities are lower in global risk off trade following Israeli air strikes against Iran’s nuclear and military facilities.
Updates on the US consumer from yesterday’s sell-side Financials conference were mostly positive.
Today’s market internals for the STOXX Europe 600 Index (SXXP) look like the three sessions immediately following the US/China trade détente (5/27-5/29) when the momentum factor sold off.