Inside Markets — Confidence in Goldilocks Narrative
Bank earnings on Friday helped build confidence in the Goldilocks narrative, which carries into today.
Inside Markets — Higher-for-Longer
Today’s data mostly supports the ‘higher-for-longer’ narrative as a hotter core CPI print has Fed officials adding qualifying remarks on the pace of rate cuts.
Inside Markets — Market Narrative
The market narrative leading into last Friday’s Jobs Report was centered around disinflationary rate cuts and eventual pro-cyclical equity leadership.
Inside Markets — Yields and Commodity Prices
The disappointing NDRC press conference helps pause the post-payroll backup in bond yields, which allows high multiple stocks to recover.
Inside Markets — Volatility Spillover
Keep an eye on bond market volatility spillover into equity markets, as VIX levels above 22 are usually associated with multiple contraction.
Inside Markets — Higher Bond Yields
The September payroll print of +254,000 was tail-risk event (~4 standard deviations) with somewhat bullish implications for equities.
Inside Markets — Payroll Preview and VIX
Consensus is looking for non-farm payrolls of +140,000 after a similar print last month generated SPX downside of ~1.75%.
Inside Markets — VIX Levels
Equity markets have entered a challenging three-week window for fund flows with a supply/demand mismatch that’s skewed to the downside.
Inside Markets — Overbought
Bullish overnight headlines fail to drive the SPX meaningfully higher due to overbought technical conditions and overhead resistance in the 3735-5810 range.
Inside Markets — Catalysts and Stimulus
The September Jobs Report on Friday 10/4 is the next major scheduled macro catalyst for markets.