Skip links

Author: jsc

Inside Markets — Updated Dot Plot

Almost all developed markets have been forming bearish distribution patterns over the last two months and the small-cap Russell 2000 (RTY) has been one of the weaker major US indices during this period.

Inside Markets — Equity Multiples

It’s otherwise quiet into tomorrow’s Fed decision with OIS markets still pricing in a pause, while the probability for another ’23 hike (November 1 or December 13) increased to 45% from 40% overnight.

Inside Markets — Updated Dot Plot

The Fed is widely expected to pause at this week’s meeting. The updated dot plot seems to be the wildcard with a ~30% chance for the median dot to price out another 25bp hike for 2023.

Inside Markets — Policy Uncertainty

This morning’s August CPI print did little to shift the inflation narrative in either direction. Headline CPI came inline, up +0.60% MoM, while the rounded core rate came in hotter, up +0.3% vs. expectations for +0.2%.

Inside Markets — Future Return on Cash

This morning’s August CPI print did little to shift the inflation narrative in either direction. Headline CPI came inline, up +0.60% MoM, while the rounded core rate came in hotter, up +0.3% vs. expectations for +0.2%.

Inside Markets — CPI, The Fed and Volatility

Implied equity volatility has been a nonfactor for markets since late March, which is why we’ve added it to the ‘Markets’ section above. High levels of volatility provide a strong headwind for equity markets, while low levels cushion potential downside.

Inside Markets — Higher Bond Yields

A combination of rising oil prices and heavy corporate bond issuance on Tuesday plus yesterday’s stronger ISM services report will result in higher bond yields, which puts pressure on equity markets.