Inside Markets — Bullish Regime

The SPX shifted back to a low-volatility, bullish regime on May 12, which made February’s all-time high the near-term price objective. From a fundamental perspective, keeping the bullish trend requires that macro data remain ‘resilient’, earnings estimates are upwardly revised and trade developments remain constructive. Upward revisions to earnings growth seems like the lowest barrier of the three. The next macro update will be tomorrow’s release of May retail sales, while the 90-day reciprocal tariff reprieve ends on July 8. A successful ‘policy pivot’ toward deregulation would add to the bullish narrative by stimulating nominal GDP and accelerating earnings growth.