Inside Markets — Favorable Near-Term Setup

The near-term setup for equities is favorable if we can assume we’re past peak geopolitical risk (>$120 Brent). Markets will now refocus on the macro picture, Q2 earnings season and trade headlines into the July 9 expiration of the 90-day tariff pause. Intraday levels take the SPX just ~1% below its all-time high with the index better positioned to break above that level (6144) following a two-week period of consolidation. Note that we are entering an historically strong period for the NDX with an opportunity for software to narrow its recent performance differential with semis.