Inside Markets — Better Than Feared
The July CPI report falls into the ‘better-than-feared’ category with the headline and core rate in line with consensus at +0.2% and +0.3% MoM, respectively.
Inside Markets — Summer Liquidity
Core CPI will be the focus tomorrow where we look for a +0.33% MoM increase, which equates to +3.1% on a YoY basis (a tick higher than consensus.
Inside Markets — Justified
In the short-term, stock prices rise and fall based on earnings estimate revisions – and estimates revisions have been higher this quarter.
Inside Markets — Fundamental Outlook
Our tactically bullish fundamental outlook from mid-May required continued positive earnings growth, U.S. economic resilience, and improving trade rhetoric/lower effective tariff rate.
Inside Markets — Near-Term Outlook
Friday’s sell-off in the SPX slowed on its approach toward technical support in the 6140-6205 zone.
Inside Markets — Narrow Leadership
The high-beta trade appeared exhausted on Monday after factor-specific sentiment reached meme stock (GME) highs from 2021.
Inside Markets — Rotation
Yesterday was the first obvious day of rotation out of high-beta equity groups into quality (earnings growth).
Inside Markets — Bull Market
U.S. growth has been resilient, financial conditions are easy, corporate capex is rising thanks to the accelerated depreciation provision and there’s incremental clarity on trade policy.
Inside Markets — Intact and Improving
Our tactically bullish fundamental outlook since mid-May has required 1) resilient macro data; 2) positive earnings growth; and 3) easing trade rhetoric.
Inside Markets — Bond Yield Outlook
We look for 2-year yields to migrate to the 3.84% level in the near-term before testing critical long-term support at 3.52% in the months ahead.