Inside Markets — Month-End Rebalancing
Month-end rebalancing likely played a role in yesterday’s fade from best levels, with the SPX now short-term overbought and in need of consolidation.
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Inside Markets — Technical Outlook Remains Bullish
Last week’s backup in bond yields was almost entirely driven by rising term premium – this is the extra yield
Inside Markets — Pressure on Bond Yields
The 20-year Treasury auction just hit with the final yield 1.2 basis points higher than expected.
Inside Markets — Revised Outlook
Last Monday’s upside gap through the 5750-5785 resistance zone invalidated the tactical bearish trend that developed after April 2.
Inside Markets — Lower Recession Probability
Weekend de-escalation in the U.S./China trade war resulted in economists lowering their 12-month recession probabilities.
Inside Markets — Pain Trade
The average peak-to-trough decline in a recession-driven bear market is ~34%, while historical bear markets (peak-to-trough declines
Inside Markets — New Phase
Equities have likely entered a brief but bullish phase when good news/data is good and bad news/data is ignored.
Inside Markets — Market Focus
It has been said that the market can only focus on one or two things at a time.
Inside Markets — Macro Outlook
The ~12% rally from lows has erased the uncertainty discount with the SPX now trading at ~21x forward estimates.
Inside Markets — Equity Demand and Macro Data
The reopened corporate buyback window has been a major source of equity demand over the last three weeks.
Inside Markets — Overbought
The SPX has reached short-term overbought levels after a +12% rally from the April low.