Insights

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February 19, 2025

The SPX and NDX quietly extend to new highs after a relatively brief two-month period of consolidation.

The S&P 500 (SPX) gained

While US equities have managed to hold their own during the last three weeks, it’s important to recognize the outperformance

Consensus is looking for headline CPI of +0.30% MoM and a core rate of +0.30%.

Wednesday’s CPI report is the macro data highlight of the week with consensus looking for a headline increase of +0.30%

Yesterday’s very strong January ISM manufacturing print may have been partially overlooked due to outsized attention on tariff developments.

Sustained 25% tariffs on Mexico/Canada and 10% incremental tariffs on imports from China would likely add ~70 bp to core

AI-themed equity charts broke short-term trend and pattern support on Monday.

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) broke key technical support at ~5100 on Monday and remains vulnerable to further downside below

Monday’s sell-off in AI themes resulted in the third largest decline for the momentum factor in 40 years.

Technical conditions support a tactically bullish near-term outlook.