Inside Markets — Seasonal Weakness and Proverbs
The three main factors that contribute to September-early October seasonal weakness are fund flows, earnings estimate revisions and October fiscal year-end for active mutual funds.
Our daily discipline includes researching and writing a top-down look at the markets, called Inside Markets.
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Inside Markets — Easing Cycle
The RTY should outperform in a declining rate environment as small cap companies tend to utilize floating rate debt.
Inside Markets — Near-Term Caution
The SPX keeps its bullish shape above ~6350, which means the primary trend is still higher despite seasonal headwinds, increased
Inside Markets — CPI Preview
Core CPI will be the focus for Thursday’s print, where we look for a +0.3% MoM increase, which equates to
Inside Markets — Rally Exhaustion
The SPX is showing clear evidence of rally exhaustion, but the bullish trend remains intact above ~6350.
Inside Markets — Software Recovery
Software has meaningfully lagged the broader S&P 500 and semiconductor industry YTD leading to a very low level of sentiment
Inside Markets — Transitory
Tariff-related price adjustments will result in higher observable inflation over the next few months.
Inside Markets — Jobs Preview
Consensus is only looking for non-farm payrolls of +77,500, up from July’s +73,000 surprise disappointment.
Inside Markets — Risk of Hot Jobs Report
August liquidity conditions typically spill into the first week of September as market participants slowly return from vacation.
Inside Markets — Eye on the Fed
The risk/reward into tomorrow’s core PCE print is skewed to the upside given the hotter-than-expected July PPI report two weeks
Inside Markets — RTY Doubts
The small cap Russell 2000 (RTY) continues to outperform, which fits the ‘rulebook’ on investing when the yield curve is