Inside Markets — Seasonal Factors
The recent pro-cyclical rotation accelerated yesterday with the cyclical/defensive ratio pushing to the high end of its 12-month range.
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Inside Markets — Near-Term Outlook
Previews for next Wednesday’s FOMC meeting cite the potential for equity market downside in the event of a 25bp cut
Inside Markets — Equity Positioning
CTA equity positioning has returned to neutral levels (50th percentile as of last Friday) after reaching the 99th percentile in
Inside Markets — Rotation
The rotation into retailers (hard/soft lines) and transports (truckers/airlines) continues with relatively upbeat headlines regarding Black Friday shopping trends helping
Inside Markets — Longer Term Outlook
A bullish fundamental outlook still requires resilient macro conditions, above-trend earnings growth and fading trade tensions.
Inside Markets — Pain Trade
The main catalyst for the recent backup in equity markets was the hawkish cut at the October Fed meeting.
Inside Markets — Momentum Factor Unwind
The recent momentum factor unwind has likely run its course with a peak-to-trough decline of ~13% as of last Thursday.
Inside Markets — AI Skepticism
The latest bout of AI skepticism is mostly based on OpenAI’s extremely ambitious capex plans and the new use of
Inside Markets — NVDA Report
NVDA has been consolidating for the last three weeks and is back to levels following its strong August print.
Inside Markets — Support
The sentiment-driven pullback saw the SPX close below its 50-day moving average yesterday for the first time since early May.
Inside Markets — Liquidity Stress Relief
Repo market stress during the government shutdown could have contributed to the recent weakness in equity markets.