September 2, 2021
The significance of tomorrow’s payroll number hasn’t diminished, but expectations are lower than they were two weeks ago, which skews bond yield risk to the upside on a larger print. Consensus has recently declined to +725,000 (+943,000 last month), but whisper numbers are closer to +650,000 and will likely drift lower in the runup to the 5:30am PT release. Fed members have used the past two monthly reports to support a December taper, but anything north of +350,000 will likely keep taper timing unchanged as the Fed looks through any delta-induced soft patch. The Fed hasn’t discussed dollar amounts/pace, but consensus is looking for $15B/mo.