The contested election scenario has reemerged as the primary risk, given we’re one week out with no fiscal stimulus and rising US case counts. The VIX Index remains elevated and lifting to levels consistent with those from September 3-8.
This week is the busiest week of Q3 earnings season with ~33% of the Russell 1000 reporting. Just over 25% of S&P 500 companies have reported thus far, with 84% beating consensus by an average of +17.2%.
From an equity perspective, a contested election looks like the worst-case, short-term scenario coming out of 11/3. Fortunately, it’s a ‘known risk’ and partially priced into markets by the looks of single stock option premiums and VIX futures pricing into December. Nevertheless, a contested outcome
For this publication, a ‘Democrat sweep’ is defined as a Biden victory and Democrat-controlled Senate. A blue wave scenario is defined as a Biden landslide win plus a 6-8 seat swing in the Senate. A Democrat sweep could result in relatively benign policy changes, while
Control of the Senate is the largest near-term macro issue for markets. Expectations for large-scale fiscal spending under a Democrat sweep scenario drove a ~3 week rally in equities. This started on 9/24 when a sell-side equity strategist used a $5T+ spending estimate by simply
Equity markets continue to price significant risk of a contested election outcome. The best indication comes from the VIX futures market where both the November and December VIX futures trade at a premium to October.
The S&P 500 (SPX) remains above its previous technical resistance zone/now support at ~3420-3450. A break below ~3420 would change our near-term expectation for a successful test of the ~3581 high. We’re also closely following the S&P 500 Value Index (SVX) as it hovers just
We’ve stayed bullish on US equities during the retracement and beyond based on a number of factors still in place today. The most compelling factor is ultra-easy financial conditions. Interest rates are at 0%, 10-year bond yields are below 1%, money supply is growing at
At the moment, the S&P 500 (SPX) is on track for a third consecutive lower daily close on gloomy COVID headlines and more realistic US fiscal stimulus expectations. After successfully holding technical support at ~3220, the SPX rallied ~9.5% in three weeks and moved from
Sell-side analysts tend to lower estimates during a quarter, but Q3’20 was one of the rare instances when the opposite occurred. Over the last 15 years, there’s only been three other times when analysts have raised estimates during the quarter.
