Author: jsc

While US equities have managed to hold their own during the last three weeks, it’s important to recognize the outperformance in non-dollar markets, specifically China and Europe.

Consensus is looking for headline CPI of +0.30% MoM and a core rate of +0.30%.

Wednesday’s CPI report is the macro data highlight of the week with consensus looking for a headline increase of +0.30% MoM with core CPI expected to print +0.23%.

Yesterday’s very strong January ISM manufacturing print may have been partially overlooked due to outsized attention on tariff developments.

Sustained 25% tariffs on Mexico/Canada and 10% incremental tariffs on imports from China would likely add ~70 bp to core US PCE prices (one time over ~2 quarters) and take GDP down by ~40 bp, holding everything else unchanged.

AI-themed equity charts broke short-term trend and pattern support on Monday.

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) broke key technical support at ~5100 on Monday and remains vulnerable to further downside below that level.

Monday’s sell-off in AI themes resulted in the third largest decline for the momentum factor in 40 years.

Technical conditions support a tactically bullish near-term outlook.

DeepSeek is a ~2 year-old Hangzhou-based, venture-funded AI R&D startup that operates under its parent company ‘High Flyer’, which is a quant fund.