Inside Markets — January Effect
Light attendance/volumes and thin liquidity are impairing the signal quality of market internals, but we see early signs of a ‘January Effect’ rewarding last year’s laggards.
Inside Markets — Uncertainty Ahead
An uneven policy path, reluctant Fed and full SPX valuation (~21x forward estimates) has us looking to add equity exposure on pullbacks only.
Inside Markets — Volatility Spike
The CBOE Volatility Index (implied equity volatility) closed at elevated levels (27.62) yesterday.
Inside Markets — Higher Bond Yields – for now
The majority of SPX sectors have reached short-term oversold territory over the past two weeks.
Inside Markets — Negative Market Breadth
The advance/decline line on the S&P 500 (SPX) has remained in negative territory for 11 straight sessions.
Inside Markets — Bond Yields
The tactical backup in Treasury yields from oversold levels looks to extend in the days/weeks ahead with more curve steepening.
Inside Markets — Money Market Assets
Markets are priced for a rate cut at next week’s meeting followed by a pause in January (1/29 FOMC).
Inside Markets — Year-End Rally
The post-election cyclical rotation has stalled with the Russell 2000 (RTY) Nasdaq 100 (NDX) performance ratio pulling back after signaling a potential break above this year’s base pattern near 0.116.
Inside Markets — CPI Preview
It seems unlikely that tomorrow’s CPI print would discourage the Fed from cutting rates by another 25bp next week, given lingering uncertainty around the health of labor markets.
Inside Markets — Mag 7 Earnings Growth
Consensus estimates for Mag 7 earnings suggests +18% growth in 2025, which is down from +33% earnings growth in 2024.