Inside Markets — Curve Steepening
Earlier this week, we estimated the negative impact on October payrolls from hurricanes and the BA strike was ~125,000.
Inside Markets — Third Phase of AI Trade
The AI theme in equities is evolving as markets begin to recognize the incremental revenue/margin opportunity for software providers.
Inside Markets — Rotation
Cyclical equity groups are overbought and consolidating recent gains rather than selling off.
Inside Markets — Tactically Bullish
We keep a tactically bullish near-term outlook given positive seasonal fund flows and wide-open buyback window into the week of 12/23.
Inside Markets — Cyclical Rotation
Cyclical/value stocks edge closer to inclusion in the momentum factor as the RTY/NDX Index ratio signals the potential for a more lasting cyclical rotation.
Inside Markets — RTY/NDX Index Ratio
The SPX maintains bullish trend dynamics at levels above 5600 with our Russell 2000/Nasdaq 100 ratio (RTY/NDX) now signaling an increased likelihood for the next leg to be led by cyclically-sensitive sectors.
Inside Markets — Pullback in Bond Yields
The fundamental driver of today’s pullback in bond yields was Friday afternoon’s nomination of Bessent to fun Treasury.
Inside Markets — Pro-Cyclical Mid Cap Bias
Strong seasonal fund flows, wide open buyback window and bullish post-election playbook suggest trend continuation across US equity markets into February.
Inside Markets — Uncertainty
The financial press continues to refer to tariffs as inflationary, which isn’t technically correct.
Inside Markets — Uncertain Policy Dynamic
Uncertainty around the timing and magnitude of policy changes is being priced near worst-case outcomes.