Inside Markets — Jobs and Post-Election Re-Risking
Consensus for October non-farm payrolls is looking for +110,000 down from September’s outsized increase of +254,000.
Inside Markets — Catalysts Ahead
Treasury yields have been rising over the last few weeks in response to improved macro data and election dynamics.
Inside Markets — Busy Week Ahead
The setup into Mag 7 reports looks like it has improved from last quarter at this time with hedge fund positioning falling to the ~55th percentile from the ~80th percentile.
Inside Markets — Election and Risk
Markets and businesses generally prefer a divided government election outcome given a reduced likelihood of significant change.
Inside Markets — Watch the VIX
Crowded long positions have underperformed this earnings season, while crowded short positions have already rallied to the 95th percentile.
Inside Markets — Rate Sensitive
Yesterday’s rapid repricing in bond yields led to the broad selloff in equities, particularly in rate sensitive sectors.
Inside Markets — Bond Yields
Today’s backup in yields is mostly attributed to the pricing of election uncertainty.
Inside Markets — MOVE Index
The bond market is starting to price-in some election-related volatility with MOVE Index options reflecting an unusually large ~18bp swing immediately following the election.
Inside Markets — Cyclical Recovery
The RTY faded late in yesterday’s session to close just below the cycle high of 2264.
Inside Markets — RTY Retest
The Russell 2000 (RTY) has outperformed large cap benchmarks (SPX and NDX) over the last three sessions and is higher today as the index tests the cycle high at 2264.