Inside Markets — Rally Decelerates
The SPX rally decelerates on the approach to 5000 with narrow leadership and early signs of bearish momentum divergence.
Inside Markets — Psychological Resistance
The S&P 500 (SPX) is approaching what could be a psychological resistance level at 5000, while the median sell-side strategy target for ’24 sits at 4950 (Bloomberg survey from mid-January).
Inside Markets — Narrow Leadership
Three months of a relatively benign macro backdrop has resulted in low equity volatility and higher valuations, though narrow leadership is cause for concern.
Inside Markets — The Fed Put
Friday’s Jobs Report was the fourth consecutive January where non-farm payrolls doubled consensus estimates.
Inside Markets — January Jobs Report
As expected, Powell used some of yesterday’s press conference to push back on March rate cut expectations.
Inside Markets — March Rate Cut Expectations
As expected, Powell used some of yesterday’s press conference to push back on March rate cut expectations.
Inside Markets — High Bar
US equities are lower after overnight earnings failed to meet a very high bar, with post-earnings downside in MSFT and GOOGL pressuring the market cap weighted SPX and Nasdaq 100 (NDX) with the two stocks accounting for 11.5% and 14.1% respectively.
Inside Markets — Resistance
The SPX is currently butting up against trendline resistance near 4925. From a technical perspective only, the SPX needs to maintain levels above ~4800 to stay intact with a break below likely coinciding with easy-to identify bearish momentum divergence.
Inside Markets — Earnings
The SPX has held up well due in large part to the outperformance of large cap Tech, which will be tested this week with earnings from five of the ‘Magnificent 7’ plus AMD.
Inside Markets — March Rate Cut
The logic behind pricing in a March rate cut originally came from Fed officials’ repeated emphasis on the annualized 6-month run rate core PCE.