Author: jsc

At current levels, the S&P 500 (SPX) is essentially unchanged from where it stood last April when terminal rates were at ~3%.

At current levels, the S&P 500 (SPX) is essentially unchanged from where it stood last April when terminal rates were at ~3%.

Short-term support is in focus as the global disinflation cycle is challenged by recent hotter-than-expected inflation data including US ISM as well as German, France and Spain CPI. 

February US growth data disappoints for a second day with consumer confidence, Chicago PMI and Richmond Fed Index all missing expectations.

A higher median dot coming out of the March 22 Fed meeting is the most apparent near-term risk for equity markets.

. Bond markets are larger and more liquid than equity markets, so when there’s a disconnect between the behavior in bond markets and equities, it’s best to overweight the signaling coming from bonds.

A downward revision to Q4 GDP and upward revision to Q4 PCE inflation have investors cautious ahead of tomorrow’s core PCE print for January.

Ten-year Treasury yields are approaching resistance near 3.90% where we expect mean reversion to kick in and pull yields back.

The no-landing narrative that emerged after the strong January payroll number drives a cyclical recovery theme in equity markets.

The recent resilience of the S&P 500 (SPX) amid the bearish repricing of Fed rate expectations comes from an emerging ‘no landing’ narrative.