Morning Notes — Dovish Implications
December non-farm payrolls came in slightly above expectations and the Unemployment Rate declined, but softer wage gains have dovish implications for markets.
Morning Notes — Terminal Rate Expectations
Terminal rate expectations may come down as job market softens. Anecdotal evidence of a softer jobs market continues to build, especially in Tech where large daily layoff announcements are now common.
Morning Notes — Near-Term SPX
Today’s encouraging inflation data interrupts two weeks of catalyst-free trend continuation that resulted in the S&P 500 (SPX) reaching short-term oversold territory.
New Year Greeting
We’d like to extend a warm New Year greeting with optimism for the year ahead. Calendar 2022 was a challenging year for investment returns as rising bond yields pressured valuation multiples across asset classes.
Morning Notes — New Year Outlook
The new year outlook is fairly optimistic considering 2022 was a challenging year for investment returns as rising bond yields pressured valuation multiples across asset classes.
Morning Notes — Q1’23
Q1’23 contains the next macro catalysts for the market on Wednesday January 4 when we get manufacturing ISM, US JOLTs job openings and FOMC minutes.
Morning Notes — Outlook
Today’s rebound from short-term oversold levels is a welcome development, but a lack of meaningful catalysts should keep a lid on things into year-end.
Morning Notes — Yield Curve Target
The rally in 30-year Treasuries decelerated earlier this month as it approached 3.50% with momentum divergence, signaling a tactical mean reversion to resistance levels near 3.90%.
Morning Notes — Narrative Change
Equity market direction is often dominated by a single cross market, but those relationships tend to be fleeting. Terminal rates have been the dominant cross market for the S&P 500 (SPX) since mid-April, but we now see the potential for collinearity to fade in coming
Morning Notes — Recession Risk
SPX support levels are in focus as the S&P 500 (SPX) faded from predetermined resistance near 4100 this week. Intraday levels have the SPX below support at ~3900.