Author: jsc

: Global manufacturing PMI crossed into expansion territory in July at 50.6 and extended to 51.8 in August. China doesn’t report flash PMIs, but last week’s data from Japan, Eurozone, UK and US imply higher levels.

Last week, many economists finally removed near-term fiscal stimulus from their Q4 GDP growth estimates. The estimated $1T-$1.5T fiscal package would have been 5 of GDP, which is a very big number and you’d think removing something that large would create a massive change to

Election uncertainty and a failure by Congress (thus far) to agree on a fiscal relief package have combined to pressure markets lower. Election uncertainty will be with us another month at least with contested election results quickly becoming the consensus view and now being priced

Election uncertainty and a failure by Congress (thus far) to agree on a fiscal relief package have combined to pressure markets lower. Election uncertainty will be with us another month at least with contested election results quickly becoming the consensus view and now being priced

: Interim data from the Phase 3 PFE/BNTX study are expected late next month with Phase 3 MRNA results shortly thereafter and an update from Oxford/AZNA sometime in November. These are the three frontrunners, but there are currently ~38 vaccines undergoing human clinical evaluations and

Over the last 7 sessions, the S&P 500 and nearly all of its Tech sector constituents have moved from overbought to short-term oversold status. Tech had a good day yesterday, but don’t expect the group to test highs at the same speed with which it

Some of the high frequency US economic data (credit card spending, mobility etc) began to decelerate toward the end of August, which many associated with a lack of fiscal support/looming fiscal cliff. Some of the official data confirmed a loss of momentum, but downshifting from

Value sectors have outperformed growth sectors so far in September.  The S&P 500 Value Index (SVX) has outperformed the S&P 500 Growth Index (SGX) by +6.7% month-to-date. This is primarily a function of improving US COVID statistics and the recent uptick in vaccine optimism.

Expectations for pre-election fiscal relief may have ticked higher following Tuesday’s $1.5T proposal from bipartisan moderates. Meadows continues to sound upbeat, Mnuchin is trying to bring people together and Trump sounds ready to sign almost any bill.

1) Today’s Fed meeting is mostly expected to be a non-event; 2) low expectations for a fifth fiscal relief bill ahead of the elections and recent strength in US labor market data (watch tomorrow’s release of weekly jobless claims) probably reduce the risk of a