Inside Markets — Lower Recession Probability
Weekend de-escalation in the U.S./China trade war resulted in economists lowering their 12-month recession probabilities.
Inside Markets — Pain Trade
The average peak-to-trough decline in a recession-driven bear market is ~34%, while historical bear markets (peak-to-trough declines
Inside Markets — New Phase
Equities have likely entered a brief but bullish phase when good news/data is good and bad news/data is ignored.
Inside Markets — Market Focus
It has been said that the market can only focus on one or two things at a time.
Inside Markets — Macro Outlook
The ~12% rally from lows has erased the uncertainty discount with the SPX now trading at ~21x forward estimates.
Inside Markets — Equity Demand and Macro Data
The reopened corporate buyback window has been a major source of equity demand over the last three weeks.
Inside Markets — Overbought
The SPX has reached short-term overbought levels after a +12% rally from the April low.
Inside Markets — Moving the Goal Post
The SPX managed to close above the 5396-5650 resistance zone on Friday.
Inside Markets — Low Vol Bullish Trend
Fundamental drivers of the recent rally, like resilient macro data and better-than-feared Q1 earnings, can be dismissed as lagging indicators.
Inside Markets — Earnings Boon
Strong overnight results from META and MSFT push the Q1 blended earnings growth rate on the SPX to +12.3% from 7.2% at the end of the quarter.