Inside Markets — Roadmap
The ‘soft’ survey data may be overstating the magnitude of an eventual tariff-induced slowdown.
Inside Markets — Two Sides
The Fed is widely expected to leave rates unchanged next week with markets more interested in a potential dovish change to forward guidance.
Inside Markets — Base Building
A combination of light positioning, low liquidity and extreme bearish equity sentiment has kept the pain trade skewed to the upside as the major indices pushed into technical resistance levels.
Inside Markets — Narrowed Downside Tail Risk
The recent de-escalation in trade tensions has narrowed downside tail risk but won’t immediately change the probability of a recession, which seems to be around 50% for most economists.
Inside Markets — Pain Trade Skewed Higher
The pain trade is clearly skewed to the upside with sidelined cash at all-time highs, equity sentiment at bearish extremes and hedge fund net equity exposure in the eighth percentile.
Inside Markets — Underpriced for Recession Risk
Extreme bearish equity sentiment, light positioning and low liquidity keep the pain trade biased higher in the near-term.
Inside Markets — SPX Levels
Yesterday’s sell-off stayed contained within the April 9 bullish outside day with the SPX opening low ~4950 serving as our near-term retest level.
Inside Markets — Retest Phase
Slowing growth data and resilient labor should be enough to keep the SPX on track to retest lows.
Inside Markets — Reflex Rally
The reflex rally off last week’s low has carried the SPX into strong technical resistance in the 5396-5650 range.
Inside Markets — Disciplined Approach
The most recent bear market occurred in 2022 as the Fed ramped its hiking campaign.