Inside Markets — Fed Dot Plot
The updated dot plot will likely attract the most attention when the Fed releases its Summary of Economic Projections later this morning.
Inside Markets — 2-Year Yields
Market-based probability for a March rate cut has declined to 44% into tomorrow’s Fed meeting from 65% last week.
Inside Markets — Challenge to Consensus
Consensus is looking for headline CPI of 0.0% MoM and 3.1% YoY. A MoM headline CPI print of +0.1% wouldn’t change the YoY estimate for +3.1%. This probably means the risks are skewed to the upside with a sub-3% YoY rate resulting in lower bond
Inside Markets — Momentum Reversal
Ten-year bond yields have started a short-term mean reversion trade with the benchmark rate lifting from key support levels.
Inside Markets — Labor Market Data
Labor market data should become a bigger input for Fed policy expectations going forward.
Inside Markets — Summary of Economic Projections
The year-end momentum reversal usually results in Eurozone indices outperforming US benchmarks.
Inside Markets — Correlation
The positive correlation between stocks and bonds breaks down today as yields move lower for the ‘wrong reasons.’
Inside Markets — Rotation
The rotation out of mega-cap Tech and into YTD underperformers will likely continue for the next couple of weeks.
Inside Markets — Momentum Reversals
The recent rally in equity markets in response to a peak in bond yields is normal/expected.
Inside Markets — Weakening Labor Markets
Combining relatively subdued initial jobless claims with sharply higher continuing claims suggests that companies have curtailed hiring activity, while stopping short of enacting large-scale layoffs thus far.