Inside Markets

Consensus is only looking for non-farm payrolls of +77,500, up from July’s +73,000 surprise disappointment.

August liquidity conditions typically spill into the first week of September as market participants slowly return from vacation.

The risk/reward into tomorrow’s core PCE print is skewed to the upside given the hotter-than-expected July PPI report two weeks prior.

The small cap Russell 2000 (RTY) continues to outperform, which fits the ‘rulebook’ on investing when the yield curve is bullishly steepening.

NVDA earning report, due tomorrow after the close, is this weeks biggest catalyst.

NVDA earnings on Wednesday afternoon remains the key datapoint as we close out August.

The direction of travel is higher in a bull market, and the SPX keeps its bullish trend intact at levels above ~6250.

The early-August rally in the SPX came with narrow breadth and the recent rotation out of momentum stocks has flowed into defensive sectors.

The momentum factor unwinds for a third time in calendar ’25 with the current drawdown measuring out to ~7% as of yesterday’s close.

Calls for a September rate cut intensified after July non-farm payrolls came in weaker than expected and July CPI came in better-than-feared.