China June PMIs are expected to stay slightly decelerate but stay in expansion territory with consensus looking for manufacturing at 50.4, down from 50.6 in May and non-manufacturing at 53.4, down from 53.6. Tomorrow’s Powell/Mnuchin testimony before the House will likely include questions on low
The significance of rising case counts in TX, FL and CA are now being watched for signs of a coincident loss of momentum in the high frequency economic indicators. At the moment, all large companies are proceeding with their reopening plans with the notable exceptions
Weekly claims came in at 1.48M down from 1.54M and 1.56M in the prior two weeks but higher than consensus estimates for 1.325M. While it’s good to see fewer claims each week, the descent trajectory and continuing claims number (19.5M this week vs. 20.3M, 20.6M,
Troubling coronavirus headlines are the main driver on rising US case counts (still South and West) and the reimposition of lockdown orders for a German state due to a localized outbreak. US-EU trade also in focus after an EC official said the EU will continue
The US and global economy are recovering from the quickest and deepest recession ever. During a recovery, there’s a strong tendency for markets to grind higher as macro data moves higher. Today’s June flash PMIs from the UK, Eurozone and US came in better than
June Fed surveys (Empire manufacturing and Philadelphia Fed) that were released last week came in well-ahead of consensus. Economic data from developed markets along with high frequency indicators have continued to show signs of very strong bounce in activity, but the two Fed surveys caught
Light equity positioning and elevated bearish sentiment are keeping the pain trade aimed higher. Yesterday’s release of weekly AAII sentiment (individual investors) resulted in 47.78 as bearish and only 24.37 as bullish. The all-time record high in bearish sentiment was 52.66, reached on May 7
Markets are always looking 6-9 months into the future and the direction of growth matters more than the magnitude. Based on May data, we can confidently say the US economy is growing, a business cycle has started and the 2020 recession was the shortest one
Yesterday’s rebound in the S&P 500 was attributed to several drivers, but the most important was the better-than-expected May retail sales that followed a surprisingly strong May Jobs Report on 6/5. Yesterday’s retail sales number pushed the US Economic Surprise Index (ESI) to an all-time
Yesterday’s intraday rally followed a Fed announcement about removing structural hurdles on corporate bond purchase eligibility for its facility originally announced in March. The Fed had been requiring that companies register their bonds for inclusion, but the associated stigma kept companies from proactively enlisting. To
