Requirements
October 13, 2025
Our bullish fundamental outlook requires more US macro resilience, positive Q3 earnings growth and trade war de-escalation. While alternative labor market data points to continued softness, the alternative growth data suggests resilience/acceleration. Specifically, the latest Q3 Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now Tracker of +3.8% is running ahead of its late-July Q2 estimate of +2.9%. Consensus is looking for Q3 SPX growth of +6% YoY and Mag 7 earnings growth of +14% YoY, which both feel low to us. We continue to see tariffs/trade holding enthusiasm back, which keeps the pain trade aimed higher – and expect the China tariff pause will ultimately be extended beyond the November 10 deadline with some limited concessions from both sides.
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