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Inside Markets — New Price Objective

New Price Objective

May 15, 2024

The SPX is on track to make a new high above 5254, with the next price objective at 5415.

However, the close is what matters most.  The rule of thumb suggests ~10% upside from a new breakout, but assuming an upside close suggests a near-term resistance level at the 5415 range swing objective.

The Russell 2000 (RTY) sits just below key resistance at 2145 with an upside break as a strong pro-cyclical signal.  We’ve been in this trading range nice mid-’22.  We keep an open mind, but continue to see this as a low-probability event given highly restrictive real yields and late-cycle dynamics. Failure to break above ~2145 will likely result in a test of the 200-day moving average of 1918 with a break closing the door on hopes for a cyclical recovery.

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