Morning Notes — Bullish Trigger for the SPX

The cause of all this pessimism is inflation, exacerbated by Russia’s invasion. Prior to the invasion, markets had been responding rationally to elevated inflation prints.  That all changed after the invasion with TIPS demand pushing 30-year inflation breakeven yields to match the move in commodities prices.  Economists exclude food and fuel from core inflation readings because they’re volatile and don’t reflect underlying inflation dynamics. Ten year inflation break even yields currently sit at 2.858.  A break below 2.75 should be considered a bullish trigger for the SPX.