June 3, 2021
Today’s ADP jobs report for May was very strong with private payrolls up +978,000 vs. consensus for +623,000. The correlation between ADP private payrolls (typically precedes the official BLS monthly Jobs Report by two days) is positive, but not strong. Consensus for tomorrow’s release of Nonfarm payrolls sits at +650,000 with most expecting a miss before the release of today’s ADP report. The set-up into a catalyst like this is often more important than the data itself, and still think ‘whisper’ numbers for tomorrow are in the +350,000-550,000 range. A blowout print (>+800,000) tomorrow would likely result in higher bond yields (~1.70%) and near-term downside in growth/Tech equity sectors.