February 28, 2020
Tomorrow’s release of official China PMI’s has consensus looking for manufacturing at 45 (down from 50 in January) and services at 50.5 (down from 54.1). Manufacturing matters most and anything between 44 and 46 would be considered ‘in-line’ given the circumstances, while a sub-43 number would be a downside surprise. Two sell-side analysts are looking for a manufacturing number below 40 (BNP Paribas at 33 and Standard Chartered at 36). A sub-50 services PMI would likely weigh on sentiment.