March 9, 2022
Tomorrow’s US CPI report has been partially de-risked by Powell’s comments in support of a 25bps March rate hike, rather than 50bps. The same can be said for tomorrow’s ECB meeting with officials delaying liftoff based on Russia/Ukraine developments. Tomorrow’s meeting between the foreign ministers of Russia and Ukraine is the main catalyst as markets have begun pricing in a low probability for a ceasefire. Basically, markets are partially unwinding worst-case commodity price outcomes established on Friday and Monday.