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Morning Notes — Consolidation Phase

Consolidation Phase

April 21, 2020

Data: From an equity perspective the most important piece of data is still weekly jobless claims report announced Thursday mornings. Thus far, the peak in claims was March 27 with 6.867MM. Last week, claims came in at 5.2MM and consensus is looking for 4.5MM this Thursday.

Longer term: After any major crisis, individuals tend to be more cautious, which translates higher savings rates. Policy stimulus during this crisis has been unprecedented, so maybe that won’t happen to the degree it did after 2009. But even holding savings rates constant, central banks are determined to keep bond yields low and investors will likely seek sustainable dividend yields as a substitute.

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