Fed Comments Ahead of FOMC Minutes
April 5, 2022
SPX: Past early stages of Fed tightening have not been negative for equities, which tend to make new highs after initial volatility. Realized volatility is a subdued, but unsettled headwind with the VIX decelerating from 36 to 21 today. The Fed liftoff template that we’ve been using since early-January suggest another 1-2 months of choppy/sideways price action before an advance to new highs.
SVX: We have a preference to add exposure in value sectors given an inevitable convergence between nominal and real yields.
NDX: Expect the NASDAQ 100 (NDX) to struggle as Tech multiples experience another period of multiple contraction amid rising real yields.