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Morning Notes — Fiscal Stimulus Plan Next Thursday

Fiscal Stimulus Plan Next Thursday

January 8, 2021

The US Jobs Report for December disappoints with nonfarm payrolls down -140,000 vs consensus for +50,000 and November’s +245,000.  But whisper numbers were anticipating a miss (weaker ADP and Ism employment component this week) and the vaccine rollout has markets looking through negative data.

Reports speculate over increased fiscal stimulus plans with consensus looking for $600 direct payments to be topped off with an additional $1,400.  But moderate Democrat Senator Manchin just said ‘absolutely not’ when asked whether he’d support the increase of $1,400.  Several outlets discuss the potential for Democrats to reinstate the SALT deduction.  The incoming administration is also expected to shift vaccine strategies by releasing all doses now rather than holding back supply to ensure booster shot availability.

Overnight results from MU better with earnings and guidance ahead of sell-side estimates.  Two more large upside preannouncements this morning from HOLX and UNP.  The CQ4 earnings season kicks off next Friday morning with large cap banks reporting.

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