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Morning Notes — Narrative


April 30, 2020

The bearish narrative is primarily focused on a slower than expected ramp in economic activity coming out of lockdown and the magnitude of the bounce since the March 23 low. The bearish narrative makes complete sense, but ultimately outnumbered and outweighed by: 1) massive policy support; 2) decelerating infection trends despite greater testing capacity; 3) reopening plans; 4) progress on potential treatments; 5) Q1 management calls citing improved China demand trends and early signs of US stabilization; 6) extreme bearish sentiment; 7) light equity positioning and; 8) 10-year bond yields at 0.60% that leaves lots of room for multiple expansion.

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