June 15, 2022
Inflation expectations drive Fed rate expectations, and hawkish Fed expectations are weighing on the S&P 500 (SPX). Ten-year inflation breakeven yields are still the best measure of inflation expectations. The peak inflation narrative should remain viable as long as 10-year breakeven yields remain below ~283bp. Levels above ~283bp make strong support near ~3,500 more likely, while levels below ~256bp probably drive the SPX through technical resistance at 4,100-4,150.