Peak in Claims Data
April 16, 2020
Some focus on a deceleration in weekly jobless claims that came in at 5.245M vs 6.615M last week and below consensus for 5.803M. This is still a huge number, but suggests a possible plateau ahead of the most dire predictions for a peak near ~10M/week.
The almost-daily markdowns in US GDP forecasts stopped mid-last week. The negative revisions were mostly responding to higher than expected weekly jobless claims data as labor markets are the key in the negative feedback loop that extends a recession. Last week’s claims data stopped the downward economic revisions and this week’s number suggests a possible peak. And the qualitative commentary from banks during Q1 conference calls sounds a bit better than feared. BAC suggested some evidence of spending trends stabilizing after sharp declines in March, while all banks reporting a recent drop in companies drawing on credit lines