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Morning Notes — Scenarios for the Catalyst Ahead

Scenarios for the Catalyst Ahead

August 3, 2021

Friday’s release of the July Jobs report is the next near-term macro catalyst.  Consensus for Non-farm payrolls is currently +825,000, which maps to a 5.7% Unemployment Rate, down from 5.9% last month.  Right or wrong, markets will use this report to gauge the impact of the delta variant as September marks the end of supplemental federal unemployment payments for the 26 remaining states. The recent end to the national evictions ban also plays into the significance of Friday’s payroll number. A material miss on Friday (something below +550,000) could trigger a steep pullback in the S&P 500. A 5% pullback would take the S&P 500 to technical support near 4200.  

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