Morning Notes — Watching Value Sectors

Since the March 23 low,  value sectors have outperformed for two brief windows matched with decelerating US infection rates in the Northeast (Tri-state area) and Midwest/Mid-Atlantic regions. The last major period of value sector outperformance was in 2016 when the move lasted more than 12 months. Since then, we’ve only experienced 4-6 week-long windows of value sector outperformance. Will the next period of value outperformance also be brief and un-investible? Unfortunately, there’s way too much liquidity now to make that assumption. And the most crowded trades at the moment are long-duration fixed income and Gold. It’s still too early to make the call, but you should at least be prepared to hear it.