Author: jsc

The S&P 500 made new highs last June and July on defensive sector leadership. At the time, we cautioned readers about the sustainability of new highs built on defensive sector leadership.

Consensus expectations into Q4 SPX earnings were too negative and have undergone a 2% upside revision. Revenue and net income growth have been better than feared, especially in Tech and Communication Services. We think Q4 is the inflection point and expect 2020 SPX estimates will

We’re nearly halfway through S&P 500 Q4 earnings season with the blended earnings growth rate (actual results mixed with still-to-come consensus estimates) now standing at +0.14%. Consensus expectations coming into Q4 earnings season was for a decline of -2.0%.

While the current coronavirus outbreak continues to dominate headlines, it’s important to keep the pre-existing theme in mind, which included a global economy free of last year’s trade drags and ample policy stimulus. This outbreak may prove to be more economically damaging to China than

Cyclical sector performance divergence (mostly semiconductors) in early August had us writing about the potential for a US-China trade détente and improving global growth 3-6 months forward. Official manufacturing PMI data for July had just been released and aggregate global manufacturing PMI had just reached

US equities are lower this morning following steep declines in Asia. Most sectors retreat led by Communications Services (FB post-earnings), Materials (IP post-earnings) and Health Care (med tech), while Staples and Utilities advance.

The 2020 presidential election is often mentioned as a risk factor for equities. Of the most frequently cited risk factors, we had it ranked third behind: 1) an abrupt end the US-China trade détente based on possible Congressional sanctions on China related to Hong Kong

Higher US yields and the firmer dollar follow better than expected US economic data this morning, while overnight Q4 earnings get a mixed response. Tomorrow’s FOMC meeting generates previews mostly focused on future meetings and the complications of eventually ending current balance sheet expansion. Meanwhile… China’s

It’s still too early to judge the ultimate size and scope of the coronavirus outbreak but we’re using the 2003 SARS outbreak as a market forecasting template nonetheless. At this point, the mortality rate of the Wuhan coronavirus is much lower than

Japan flash manufacturing PMI for January improved to 49.3 from 48.4 last month and Eurozone flash manufacturing PMI improved to 47.8 from 46.8. Both numbers still indicate contraction, but both improve at a pace that’s slightly ahead past episodes of recovering global growth.