Inside Markets — Labor Data
Weekly jobless claims are the highest frequency labor data we have.
Inside Markets — Deteriorating Internals
Market internals have notably deteriorated over the last few months.
Inside Markets — All-time High
Yesterday’s risk-on rally and all-time high (ATH) in the SPX and NDX followed a Goldilocks ISM services print (improved headline number/lower prices paid) after two weeks of disappointing economic data.
Inside Markets — Testing New Highs
The SPX and NDX are threatening new highs as bond yields break below moving average support.
Inside Markets — US Equity Narrative
The US equity narrative may be starting to evolve with increased concern for the growth outlook.
Inside Markets — From Goldilocks to Soft Landing
The prevailing narrative has shifted from Goldilocks (resilient growth, lower inflation, rate cuts) to ‘soft landing’ (slow growth, lower inflation, rate cuts) over the last three weeks.
Inside Markets — Pullback Scenario
A pullback scenario in the 4-5% range is a normal occurrence (~3x/year) in equity markets, while corrections in the 10-15% range usually require a sizeable change in macro fundamentals.
Inside Markets — Ten-Year Yield Level
Pressure on equity markets from rising bond yields continue, but is unlikely to generate significant downside unless/until 10-year yields break above ~4.75%.
Inside Markets — Incrementally Cautious
We turn incrementally cautious as market leadership narrows amid rising bond yields.
Inside Markets — Reversal
The SPX is short-term overbought and should make its way to oversold status within two weeks by our estimates.