Inside Markets — Major Catalyst
This afternoon’s NVDA report is a major catalyst for equity markets given the dominance of AI in the bullish narrative.
Inside Markets — Technical Levels
We keep a near-term bullish tactical outlook on the SPX at levels north of 5060 with an upside price objective of 5415.
Inside Markets — Performance Anxiety
The SPX is now overbought with signs that higher prices are driving performance anxiety as sidelined investors are forced into equities.
Inside Markets — Volatility at YTD Lows
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) returns to YTD lows near 12, which should keep the momentum trade intact for the time being.
Inside Markets — US Economic Surprise Index
A sharp decline in the US Economic Surprise Index challenges the benign macro environment that gave us low volatility and higher multiples.
Inside Markets — New Price Objective
The SPX is on track to make a new high above 5254, with the next price objective at 5415.
Inside Markets — Soft Landing Scenario
The SPX currently sits ~60bps below the all-time high of 5254 made on March 28 when 10-year Treasury yields were 4.20%.
Inside Markets — CPI Preview
Consensus is looking for headline CPI to rise +0.4% MoM and 3.4% YoY with core CPI expected to rise +0.3% and +3.62%.
Inside Markets — Weekly Gain
US equities finished higher with the S&P 500 (SPX) on pace for a third-straight weekly gain after three-straight weekly declines. The SPX is also ~1% below its late-March all-time high of 5254. REITS are the upside standout by sector after EQIX reported a positive audit
Inside Markets — Trend Continuation
A catalyst vacuum until next Tuesday/Wednesday should mean trend continuation (biased higher) for the SPX, but the index will likely struggle on the advance to strong overhead resistance at 5254 (~1.45% above current levels).