Inside Markets — Buyer Exhaustion
US equities are mostly higher after a quiet session yesterday ended with all three major indices advancing more than 1%.
Inside Markets — Near-Term Resistance
The SPX is currently trading above near-term resistance at ~5130 with a better close, effectively removing CTA selling pressure from the list of worries.
Inside Markets — Real Yields
Last week, we called your attention to the all-time high in 10-year real yields at +228bp. Positive real yields restrict activity with long lags that make it very difficult for the Fed to engineer a soft landing.
Inside Markets — Dovish Takeaways
The more dovish paraphrased takeaways from yesterday’s Fed policy statement: 1) committee finds little signal from the Q1 inflation uptick due to lagged effects embedded in the data.
Inside Markets — Emerging Growth Headwinds
Equity markets have remained relatively resilient despite higher bond yields and emerging growth headwinds.
Inside Markets — SPX Levels
The SPX touched its rising 50-day moving average near 5126 yesterday before reversing to close slightly below that level.
Inside Markets — Rate Expectations
This week’s Fed meeting has largely been de-risked due to significant repricing in rate expectations.
Inside Markets — SPX Resistance
The SPX is testing near-term resistance at 5119. A sustained break above that level would shelve our tactically bearish outlook.
Inside Markets — Peak Inflation Fears
Yesterday’s note on the disinflationary implications from April flash PMI and record high real yields have started another branch for the decision tree.
Inside Markets — Historical High
Ten-year real yields (nominal yield – inflation expectations) are at an historical high of +225bp.