Inside Markets — Declining Inflation
ISM services for August came in stronger than expected with new orders, employment and prices all higher MoM. The data keeps upward pressure on bond yields.
Inside Markets — Inverted Yield Curve
September always brings a lot of discussion about seasonality given that it’s the worst performing month of the year. But while September’s average return is negative, its median return is ~0%.
Inside Markets — Data Dependent
Yesterday, 10-year bond yields reached our near-term target of ~4.09% intraday, while the 5-year yield has dipped but remains above our target of ~4.14%. The result is a 5/10 yield curve inversion in the -10 to -15bp range, which falls short of bullish signaling for
Inside Markets — Jobs Report
Systematic funds should be net-buyers of equities given subtle changes in technical conditions.
Inside Markets — Paradox
Bond prices and stock prices are positively correlated at the moment because inflation remains elevated.
Inside Markets — Q3 Outlook
Yesterday’s call for lower yields and curve steepening arrives right on schedule with today’s sharp drop in job openings adding extra pressure on front end yields.
Inside Markets — Downward Pressure
US equities will continue to take direction from bond yields with expectations for downside in 5-year yields to steepen the curve and provide near-term support for equity markets.
Inside Markets — Catalyst Vacuum
Attendance will remain light through Labor Day as we enter a catalyst vacuum over the next week, which we expect to result in trend continuation for equity markets.
Inside Markets — Banks
Financials declined ~1.9% yesterday as Fitch warned about potential debt rating downgrades for large US banks.
Inside Markets — Technical Support
The S&P 500 (SPX) has slipped to first level technical support in the 4438-4460 range with the index currently sitting on its 50-day moving average of 4447. Next level support sits at 4405 with a sustained break below that level derailing bullish trend dynamics that