Inside Markets — Bond Yield Peak
Ten year yields still look like they peaked last October at 4.2%. A new high in the 10-year yield would take equities lower, where a move to ~3.5% would likely drive the S&P 500 (SPX) to a new all-time high.
Inside Markets — Bond Yields
Yesterday’s stronger Q2 GDP print, firmer durable goods orders and lower weekly jobless claims number resulted in higher bond yields.
Inside Markets — Technical Resistance pt2
The S&P 500 (SPX) is currently trading above technical resistance near 4565. Closing levels north of 4567 would likely deliver increased upside momentum and a test of highs near 4794.
Inside Markets — Technical Resistance
Yesterday, the S&P 500 (SPX) managed to close at our predetermined technical watershed level of 4567. Closing levels above 4567 would likely result in increased bullish momentum.
Inside Markets — Fed Preview
Markets are priced for a 25bp rate hike and a message that signals a pause in the hiking cycle. The June meeting resulted in a ‘hawkish skip,’ but the softer-than-expected June CPI/PPI reports should give the Fed more comfort to be patient and data dependent.
Inside Markets — Improved Conditions
We suspended our tactical bearish bias back in early June based on improved market breadth, cyclical sector leadership and a break above technical resistance at 4200. Market breadth continues to improve and cyclical sectors lead, but at a much slower pace.
Inside Markets — NDX and SPX
US equities are mostly higher after yesterday’s sell-off in mega-cap Tech took the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) down more than 2%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) finished higher for a ninth straight session
Inside Markets — Consolidation Likely
The S&P 500 (SPX) has reached the upper end of technical resistance in the 4515-4565 range. A close above 4567 with cyclical and small cap leadership would accelerate the pain trade and extend the recent rally.
Inside Markets — Technical Resistance
The S&P 500 (SPX) has reached the upper end of technical resistance in the 4515-4565 range. A close above 4567 with cyclical and small cap leadership would accelerate the pain trade and extend the recent rally.
Inside Markets — Soft Landing Risks
The macro narrative continues to shift toward a soft landing after yesterday’s Empire Fed manufacturing index came in better than expected with big declines in prices paid and prices received.